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|Spread betting football statistics||Being familiar with the key numbers in both NFL ATS and totals betting is spread betting football statistics, but as a bettor, it spread betting football statistics important to know how to translate this knowledge to your handicapping process. Strength of schedule is also accounted for at the far-right hand side of the table. Bettors could use this emotion as part of their handicapping a football game. While 10 is the smallest and most common combination number to be aware of, note the slightly higher probabilities for margins that reflect other combination numbers such as 14 a two-touchdown margin17 two touchdowns plus a field goal and 21 three touchdowns. During the same period the total landed exactly on these numbers between times 51 and times 33respectively. According to Wizard of Oddsthe probability that an NFL game finished with a 3 point margin is around Take the following spread for a game between the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers for example:.|
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Note the difference just off of the key number of three at one sportsbook compared to the other. Discrepancies in liability or the analysis of oddsmakers could lead to finding a hook on that same game elsewhere, as in the example above. If the hook is in favor of the side you wish to back, you will have found a much better opportunity than simply accepting the original line. One popular way to bet point spreads and totals involves buying points.
This option affords bettors the ability to bet an adjusted version of the line on a game with increased juice. Take the following spread for a game between the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers for example:. The Steelers could now win by a field goal margin of 3 points exactly and you would cash your ticket. Buying points also comes into play with teaser bets.
Different books offer different variations, but the most common type of NFL teaser is the 6-point teaser. This wager enables bettors to adjust the lines a full six points in the direction of their choosing. The catch is that they must tease two lines together and have both results come to fruition to win the bet. Looking for lines that can be teased through the NFL key numbers will help to maximize the teaser feature to the fullest.
Statistics are under the microscope in sports now more so than ever. Thanks to this increased availability and accuracy, sports bettors have an ample volume of statistics at their disposal to assist in the handicapping process.
Stats are kept in the game of football at various levels, both for collective teams and individual players. The primary unit battles offense vs. The following sections discuss several statistics to monitor closely when it comes to betting the NFL. When it comes to predicting future points scored and allowed by a certain team, it turns out that yardage statistics prove more reliable than previous scoring stats themselves. There are a whole host of yardage statistics that NFL bettors should track diligently, including but not limited to:.
Looking for offenses that routinely strike for big gains and defenses that are prone to allowing chunk plays can prove particularly advantageous when these units are set to be matched up head to head in a game. The defensive points allowed per yards statistic is a great indicator of just how tough it is to score on a given defense. The stat is calculated by first dividing the total number of yards a defense has allowed by The answer is then divided into the total number of points a team has allowed.
A good defense will fall below 6. Because turnovers can propel a team to victory or spell their doom in a given game, they often correlate directly with how the betting public perceives a team the following week. While the battle in the trenches garners little spotlight or fanfare, the front lines are without a doubt the heart and soul of a football game. The pressure rate statistic is the best way to predict whether a future drive will be shut down by a crushing sack, even more so than sack rate.
A defense with a strong pressure rate will prove especially effective on pass plays. Knowing which defenses are best at generating pressure, which offensive lines are best at preventing it, and which quarterbacks perform well or poorly under it are all helpful for NFL bettors. Time of possession is an important statistic to track on a couple of fronts.
While it is a great way to draw comparisons between teams, making betting decisions based on time of possession alone is ill-advised. Bettors should also be aware of how the time of possession data can become skewed. One particularly beneficial resource to utilize is the Football Outsiders efficiency rankings. As you can see from the following image of the defenses table, the overall rankings are broken down further into passing and rushing categories.
Strength of schedule is also accounted for at the far-right hand side of the table. Key numbers and statistics are both great tools for NFL bettors to use to take their handicapping to the next level. There are strong key numbers to use for both ATS and totals bets. Looking for these numbers and their hooks amongst posted lines can ensure that you get the best value on the bet you intend to make.
Bookmakers and bettors both use this long term data and possible short term implications. At the same time, football bettors use the information when handicapping a game and placing a wager. Key numbers are one data point that is always useful for placing a wager. Moneyline wagers are relatively simple. Just pick a team and the wager will either win or lose. Point spreads are a different monster.
Sportsbooks can create a point spread for a game so that each team playing has an almost even chance of winning the game. A good point spread should attract bettors on both sides of a game. This puts the book at risk of major losses. Sportsbook operators know the key numbers and use them to their advantage. Sportsbooks will add vigorish vig as much as possible before moving instead of moving off the number. During football games, you might see the point spread remain at 3 or 7 but the vig moves from to then to before moving to either 2.
The extra vig gives the sportsbook a little more of an edge in case the margin of victory lands in the key number. Understanding the key numbers could be the difference between placing a winning or losing wager. The most common margin of victory at the end of both college and pro football games is 3 points. According to Wizard of Odds , the probability that an NFL game finished with a 3 point margin is around The next closest margin of victory is 7 points.
Games from through Week 1 of the season finished with a 7 point margin 9. This large sample size covers a total of 3, games. During this sample, nearly 1 in every 4 games finished with a margin of victory of 3 or 7 points. The actual number of games to end with a margin of victory of exactly 3 or 7 points was The probability for the margin of victory in college football is similar but slightly different. When looking at the key numbers, the hook is a half-point away from the 3- and 7-point margin of victory.
The main hook to keep an eye is around the 3-point line. These point spreads are 2. The second hook to look for is around the key number of 7. These point spreads are 6. Shopping around different sportsbooks comes in handy when looking for an extra half-point on a game. For example, buying a half point from 3 to 2.
NFL rules change every season.