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Line movement sports betting

This timing is key in both football and basketball. If an NFL quarterback is listed as questionable or doubtful during the week, and is later ruled out by kick-off time, the line can move a full field goal or touchdown.

Monitoring injuries is key to betting all sports, but absolutely crucial to betting NBA games in the regular season. A great NBA bettor I trust recommended that I follow an injury reporting service like Fantasy Labs to get notifications as soon as a player is ruled out.

The point spread swings can be massive. Sometimes, if you are quick, you can get bets in minutes before a sportsbook becomes aware of the injury and changes the line. Always keep in mind that line movement is fluid.

What looks like a great play in the morning can seem disastrous by the time evening rolls around. Remember to make sure you understand why a line is moving in a certain direction, or what could make a line move in a certain direction, before placing a bet. We will take a look at these big moves now.

These bettors wager large sums of money on games and view their wagers as investments, rather than casual bets. As a result, knowing what side the sharps are betting can give you valuable insight on projecting line movements. The public is defined as bettors who casually bet on a game. Sportsbooks and oddsmakers are well aware of the tendencies of casual bettors, and the general rule that they like to bet on favorites and the over on game totals.

Betting percentages are key to knowing what side of a bet is public indicated by which side has a greater percentage of the bets placed and which one is backed by sharps indicated by which side has a greater percentage of the money placed on a particular side. There are plenty of tools available to track the number of tickets on a certain side of a bet, along with the amount of money as a percentage of the number of bets, that can indicate sharp plays to get ahead of line movement in your favor.

The Action Network is one service I use to track these numbers. Reverse line movement is a prime example of the nuance surrounding the shifting of odds. Your first inclination could be that the line will move to or , but instead the Maple Leafs moneyline drops to This is called reverse line movement.

If a line moves in a different direction than expected, it is most likely because there was a greater percentage of money placed on the other side. The sharps are on the underdog Canadiens. As a result, sportsbooks are forced to adjust the line in order to entice a larger percentage of money on the other side. How should we react to reverse line movement? In general, the rule of thumb is to fade the public. Sharp bettors have a long track record of success, and although they do lose bets, they by and large win more bets than they lose.

One of the easiest ways to follow sharp action is to follow reverse line movement. However, you can maximize profit by being on the side of sharps before the line moves to adjust to them. There are a few more common betting strategies surrounding line movement that we will discuss.

These strategies — middling, playing key numbers, and buying points — are all important to maximizing your profits in the world of sports betting. We will look at a quick example to illustrate middling, this time using the NBA. A few hours before the game, a key Laker is ruled out, and the line moves heavily towards the Celtics:. Only to be considered when a line moves more than a few points, middling can be used to both maximize your profits on a particular bet or hedge against a loss.

The second strategy we will discuss is playing key numbers. Key numbers are much more relevant in football and to a lesser extent, basketball than they are in other sports with fixed runlines or pucklines like baseball and hockey. Key numbers in football especially in the NFL are very important. Key numbers are numbers that, more often than not, end up being the score differential that a game hinges on. Given that a touchdown and an extra point is worth seven points, and a field goal is worth three points, the key numbers in football are 3 and 7.

These key numbers are crucial to betting NFL point spreads. Per Wizard of Odds , a 3 point margin of victory occurs A 7 point margin of victory occurs 9. A full table can be found on their page, which uses data from to , but it is safe to say that 3 and 7 are the biggest key numbers in the NFL.

Knowing where the line is going to move is essential to playing key numbers and getting good prices on your bets. The third strategy we will discuss in the world of line movement is buying points. Buying points allows the bettor the option of moving the point spread or totals in your favor when betting on football or basketball. When betting favorites, buying points allows a bettor to take off a half point, a full point, or 1.

And when betting underdogs, a bettor can add a half point, a full point, or 1. Sportsbooks vary in the price of buying points, but the general rule is that a half point is worth an extra ten cents in juice. In our earlier NFL example, if you wanted to buy points with the Ravens Knowing and playing key numbers is also crucial to buying points, and sportsbooks know this.

Most sportsbooks will charge twenty-five cents as opposed to ten cents when buying on or off key numbers of 3 or 7. Being able to project line movement will help you buy points in a certain direction away from line movement. For example, if you think the Ravens Sign in.

Log into your account. Forgot your password? Password recovery. Recover your password. Get help. They are safe, right? Most of the bets on Team A are at As luck would have it, Team A wins the game by exactly 3 points, What happens to the sportsbook? They lose all the bets on Team A at It's an absolute nightmare for them as they lose their shirt. They got middled. As you can imagine, the sportsbooks look to avoid this at all costs.

They rarely let lines cross key numbers numbers that are more likely to end up as the final margin of victory. And, they try to get the initial line right so they don't have to move it much. They will also employ another trick to avoid getting middled. Instead of moving a line over a key number, they will often leave the line unchanged, but change the odds required to bet at that line. For example, you will often see this:.

Team A opens as an 8. They get a lot of bets on Team A, but rather than move the line to a 9. So you can still bet Team A at That has the desired effect of evening out the bets, without requiring a line movement that would risk a middle. When I send out picks, I shop for the best lines and use those. Making sure you get the best lines and odds available is a key part of winning at sports betting.

This doesn't mean that when you go to place your bet, your line or odds will exactly match what I send out. When going to place a bet, sometimes you won't be able to find that same line. That can happen for two reasons:. In either case, I am often asked what to do. Let's look what could happen with your bet, assuming you bet it using the new, different line:. The first four scenarios above are good.

Obviously, if the line moves in your favor i. Over the long haul, about half of the time the line moves will be like this, in your favor. But, what if the line moves against you? In that scenario, you are susceptible to the second four scenarios shown above 5- 8. What should you do then?

Good question. Unfortunately, there is no one right answer. In order to have one right answer, we'd need to know which of the four scenarios was most likely. But we don't know the outcome of the game yet, so we can't predict whether the line move against you will have a neutral or negative effect.

It's nearly impossible to determine beforehand whether that 1-point move will result in scenario 5, 6, 7 or 8. If we could predict with that level of accuracy down to 1 point on a regular basis, we'd all be millionaires, right? But we still have a decision to make. If we lay off the game, or take our bet size down on it, two things can happen.

If the bet wins anyway, we may be upset at ourselves for leaving money on the table. If we reduce our bet or pass and the bet loses, however, then we are happy that we saved ourselves some money. But since we can't know beforehand which of those two things will happen, then what do we do?

We apply some logic and we take into account your personal risk preferences. Logic dictates that the more a line moves, the higher a chance it will affect the outcome. If a line moves half-a-point, that's a small move and is quite unlikely to affect the outcome of the bet. If it moves 2. And, if it moves on to, off of, or over a key number, then the chances increase even more.

Risk preference simply refers to how you personally feel about taking risks. If you are a natural risk taker, then you may decide to ignore the line move and roll the dice. Sure, you have a worse line, but if our team wins big, it won't matter. So in this case, you could just play it at your normal level and hope for the best. If, on the other hand, you can't stand the thought of a line movement turning your winner into a loser and you tend to be risk averse, then you might choose to lay off the game, or at least take your bet size down.

You may reason, "Hey if it wins, I will win less but that's ok. It's better than the thought of losing this due to that pesky line change. Another option is to buy points to get the spread to match the number at which I released the play. Should you do this? The general answer is no. Because the cost of this over time will eat up your profits. Doing this has been proven to be slightly profitable over the long-haul vs.

Any other buying of points, in my opinion, is a mistake. At the end of the football season, I did an in-depth study of buying on and off of the key number of 3 in the NFL. I looked at all games since and here's what I found:. So the study showed that buying the half point on or off of 3 in the NFL is always more profitable than not buying the half point. But, the edge is pretty small. The best benefit might be the emotional benefit you get from being able to turn a loss into a push or a push into a win.

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That can be much easier said than done, though, because the opening number may be the lowest you will get on a favorite before the public hammers it and makes it too high. But while there are advantages to jumping on a line early, there can also be advantages to sitting back and watching to see how the line moves. That can definitely be the case if you are more interested in betting on the underdog, as you may be able to simply wait and watch the value grow.

Overall, line movements can be fairly predictable. Many lines remain fairly stagnant, eventually moving a half-point or so against the favorite as the public bets on the favorite , and then perhaps coming back to the original line after the underdog bettors get their action in. For example, when a line increases by a full point or more, the key is to watch how quickly this movement takes place. If a team opens at On the other hand, if a team opens at You might expect the New Orleans Saints to be huge favorites this week, and when they open at -2, something does not seem right.

If the line does not move or goes the other direction against New Orleans to Regardless, it is always extremely important to follow line moves carefully and use your gut feeling on when to jump in and place a bet on the side you want before it becomes too late. Need more winning picks? The handicapping, sports odds information contained on this website is for entertainment purposes only. Please confirm the wagering regulations in your jurisdiction as they vary from state to state, province to province and country to country.

Using this information to contravene any law or statute is prohibited. See DraftKings. Line movement matters. Knowing the best time to place your bet can be the difference between a modest win and a big profit. As you become more confident and experienced in sports betting, considering line movement will become second nature. You will get a feel for how lines are likely to move and learn when the best time to place your bets is.

Using line movement to your advantage is a great way to maximize betting profits. Depending on which side of the bet you want to take, you may be better off waiting until the line has moved in your favor. Alternatively, it is possible you should get in on the action as early as possible if you think the line will move against you. As you will see, there are ways to predict which way the line will move, and when you should place your bet.

These lines can change drastically between the time they are initially set by the sportsbook up until when the game actually begins. In general, sportsbooks like to have as close to an even amount of action on each side of a bet. This means that regardless of who wins, they will make a profit on the commission they charge, which is the cut the sportsbook takes of every bet before it is paid out.

If there is way more action on one side of the bet, the sportsbook risks losing money when that side of the bet ends up winning. The way that the sportsbook can encourage an even amount of money being bet on both sides is by making the less popular side more attractive.

This is done by changing the payout odds or shifting the point spread or total. Basically, any time you notice that the odds, points or totals in a bet have changed, that means the line has been moved. Line movement can occur at any time, and it occurs as a reaction — usually to a majority of money being placed on one side of the bet, but also to external factors such as injuries or suspensions.

Generally, once the betting lines are opened there is a flurry of bets from the public which indicates which side of the bet most people like. After that initial flurry, it is common that the lines will be moved. The Chiefs started out as favorites, with When the line moved they became even greater favorites, moving to -5 points. Conversely, the Ravens became an even bigger dog. In this case, it is likely that a lot of people bet on the Chiefs when the line opened.

This leads the sportsbook to give more points to the Ravens, to entice people to bet on them and balance the action. Another way the line could move is that the odds change on the money line, without the point spread being considered. That could look like this:. By making one side of the bet more appealing, the sportsbook can entice more people to bet on it. As we have seen, generally lines move because a large majority of money has been placed on one side of a single bet.

In the example above, the Chiefs started out as favorites and attracted a lot of bets. This would have made the sportsbook concerned that they would lose money if the Chiefs won. In response, they gave the Ravens even more points so that more people would bet on them. The most common reason for line movement is that the vast majority of public bettors are betting in one direction. Generally, the highest number of people betting on one side means that that side has the highest amount of money.

Another possibility, particularly when the line moves erratically or unexpectedly, is that a lot of money has been placed by a small number of bettors. This tends to take the form of reverse line movement. Reverse line movement is when the line moves in contradiction to the public betting percentage. That is, even though most people are betting on one side, the line moves to make that side more attractive.

This tends to indicate sharp money. Lines can also move based on external factors separate from the betting. For example, if three key players from one team are suddenly injured a couple of days out from an important game, that is likely to be reflected in the betting lines. Other factors like this include suspensions, team selection, tactical announcements or weather. Remember, sportsbooks are not always trying to set lines that they think are fair or even.

The bottom line is that with the exception of player and team factors, sportsbooks move betting lines because they think it gives them the best chance of making money. There are lots of different sports betting strategies that let you leverage your knowledge of line movement. Another strategy for using line movement is to observe how the odds change to give you an idea of where the best value is.

If you are sure which side you want to back, all you need to worry about is getting the best price or point spread. One good rule of thumb is that if you want to bet on the favorite you should bet early. Line movement can be erratic, but generally, favorites are more popular with the public, and so the line tends to move against them after the betting line is opened. They simply bet on the favorite as soon as the line is released.

Over time, the line tends to move against the favorite, making them a less attractive bet. Conversely, if you like the road underdog it is often worth waiting a few days after the line is released. Generally, the public bets on favorites which leads to line movement in favor of the underdog. This is known as betting against the favorite, and you can read our guide here.

Line movement is also very important for hedging. If you get in early and the line moves so that your side of the bet comes down in odds or points, chances are you can bet on the other side to reduce your risk. This is only possible when the line moves in your favor. One more technique to use if you know which side you like: decide on a price that works for you and wait to see if the line moves onto your price.

Well, line movement can help you pick. Take this example:. This line movement indicates that a lot of money has been placed on the Celtics in a short space of time. Although movement does tend to go against the favorite, it is often quite gradual. A big jump like this suggests that the smartest bettors with the most money or sharps think that the original line offered by the sportsbook was very good value. If you spot a situation like this, a good move will be to quickly check other sportsbooks to see if the Celtics are available anywhere else at Since sportsbooks react to the bets they receive themselves as opposed to bets received by other sportsbooks lines move at different speeds in different books.

Once you have an idea of the value from the line movement of one book, you should shop around with others to find the best price. As you gain more experience in sports betting, you will become more familiar with the way the lines move. Both the direction of the line movement and the timing of the line movement gives us information.

Dramatic movement over a short period of time indicates big money from clued-in bettors. Gradual movement in one direction indicates public perception. Depending on the kind of bet, line movement will look different. Basically, the sportsbook decides on the most likely margin of victory and gives each side a points handicap accordingly. If you bet on the Colts, they need to win by four points or more for you to win.

Here, the line has moved so that the Colts are even bigger favorites. Now, if you bet on them they will need to win by 5 points or more for you to win your bet. Line movement in point spread betting is all about sportsbooks making the suggested margin of victory more attractive or less attractive. If you notice the numbers in a point spread bet getting higher over time ie, more points between the teams , it means the majority of money is being placed on the favorite. If the numbers are getting lower, the majority of the money is going on the underdog.

Key numbers are significant for moving point spreads. You can read our more comprehensive guide to key numbers here. If you see a spread moving on or off a key number, it is worth considering how this could affect a bet. Moneyline bets are probably the simplest form of betting. In this case, the sportsbook makes up for the difference in quality between the two teams not with points, but with odds.

Betting on the underdog will win more than betting on the favorite. If the values get larger then the majority of money is being placed on the favorite. If they get smaller, then the majority is going on the underdog.

Point total bets involve betting on the total number of points scored in a game. The sportsbook sets a number on which they suggest there is a fifty-fifty shot of the total points being either over or under. The line might look like this:. In this case, if you bet the over you will win if there is a total of points or more scored in the game.

If you bet the under, you will win if there is a total of or fewer points scored. If a lot of bets came in on the Over in this case, the points total might rise to entice more bets on the Under. In this case, if you liked the Over, you would have been better to bet early before the line moved.

However, if you liked the Under, you will have gotten a better price by waiting. Of the three types of movement here, totals are the most affected by factors like weather and injuries to creative players, since these can have a major effect on the number of points scored. All of the above examples are different forms of the same activity from sportsbooks.

The books move the lines because they want to make one side of the bet more attractive, whether that is through points, odds or totals. Watching how these numbers change gives you information which you can use to time your bets effectively. One of the classic ways to take advantage of line movement is by using a strategy called betting the middle. The situation only arises once in a while depending on line movement, and when it does you have the chance to bet on both sides of a game with a chance to win both bets.

Now over the course of the next few days, a lot of people bet on the Patriots, so the sportsbook changes the line. Now it looks like this:. This opens up the possibility of a middle bet for you. This leaves you in a situation where you will win both bets if the Patriots win by 5 or 6 points. If they win by 4 or 7 points you also get one of your bets back as a push, while winning the other. The worst-case scenario, in this case, is you win one of your bets and lose the other.

Successfully betting the middle depends on you getting in on the right side of action early.

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Another possibility, particularly when the line moves erratically or unexpectedly, is that a lot of money has been placed by a small number of bettors. This tends to take the form of reverse line movement. Reverse line movement is when the line moves in contradiction to the public betting percentage.

That is, even though most people are betting on one side, the line moves to make that side more attractive. This tends to indicate sharp money. Lines can also move based on external factors separate from the betting. For example, if three key players from one team are suddenly injured a couple of days out from an important game, that is likely to be reflected in the betting lines.

Other factors like this include suspensions, team selection, tactical announcements or weather. Remember, sportsbooks are not always trying to set lines that they think are fair or even. The bottom line is that with the exception of player and team factors, sportsbooks move betting lines because they think it gives them the best chance of making money. There are lots of different sports betting strategies that let you leverage your knowledge of line movement.

Another strategy for using line movement is to observe how the odds change to give you an idea of where the best value is. If you are sure which side you want to back, all you need to worry about is getting the best price or point spread. One good rule of thumb is that if you want to bet on the favorite you should bet early. Line movement can be erratic, but generally, favorites are more popular with the public, and so the line tends to move against them after the betting line is opened.

They simply bet on the favorite as soon as the line is released. Over time, the line tends to move against the favorite, making them a less attractive bet. Conversely, if you like the road underdog it is often worth waiting a few days after the line is released. Generally, the public bets on favorites which leads to line movement in favor of the underdog. This is known as betting against the favorite, and you can read our guide here. Line movement is also very important for hedging.

If you get in early and the line moves so that your side of the bet comes down in odds or points, chances are you can bet on the other side to reduce your risk. This is only possible when the line moves in your favor. One more technique to use if you know which side you like: decide on a price that works for you and wait to see if the line moves onto your price.

Well, line movement can help you pick. Take this example:. This line movement indicates that a lot of money has been placed on the Celtics in a short space of time. Although movement does tend to go against the favorite, it is often quite gradual. A big jump like this suggests that the smartest bettors with the most money or sharps think that the original line offered by the sportsbook was very good value. If you spot a situation like this, a good move will be to quickly check other sportsbooks to see if the Celtics are available anywhere else at Since sportsbooks react to the bets they receive themselves as opposed to bets received by other sportsbooks lines move at different speeds in different books.

Once you have an idea of the value from the line movement of one book, you should shop around with others to find the best price. As you gain more experience in sports betting, you will become more familiar with the way the lines move. Both the direction of the line movement and the timing of the line movement gives us information.

Dramatic movement over a short period of time indicates big money from clued-in bettors. Gradual movement in one direction indicates public perception. Depending on the kind of bet, line movement will look different. Basically, the sportsbook decides on the most likely margin of victory and gives each side a points handicap accordingly. If you bet on the Colts, they need to win by four points or more for you to win. Here, the line has moved so that the Colts are even bigger favorites.

Now, if you bet on them they will need to win by 5 points or more for you to win your bet. Line movement in point spread betting is all about sportsbooks making the suggested margin of victory more attractive or less attractive. If you notice the numbers in a point spread bet getting higher over time ie, more points between the teams , it means the majority of money is being placed on the favorite.

If the numbers are getting lower, the majority of the money is going on the underdog. Key numbers are significant for moving point spreads. You can read our more comprehensive guide to key numbers here. If you see a spread moving on or off a key number, it is worth considering how this could affect a bet. Moneyline bets are probably the simplest form of betting. In this case, the sportsbook makes up for the difference in quality between the two teams not with points, but with odds.

Betting on the underdog will win more than betting on the favorite. If the values get larger then the majority of money is being placed on the favorite. If they get smaller, then the majority is going on the underdog. Point total bets involve betting on the total number of points scored in a game. The sportsbook sets a number on which they suggest there is a fifty-fifty shot of the total points being either over or under.

The line might look like this:. In this case, if you bet the over you will win if there is a total of points or more scored in the game. If you bet the under, you will win if there is a total of or fewer points scored. If a lot of bets came in on the Over in this case, the points total might rise to entice more bets on the Under.

In this case, if you liked the Over, you would have been better to bet early before the line moved. However, if you liked the Under, you will have gotten a better price by waiting. Of the three types of movement here, totals are the most affected by factors like weather and injuries to creative players, since these can have a major effect on the number of points scored.

All of the above examples are different forms of the same activity from sportsbooks. The books move the lines because they want to make one side of the bet more attractive, whether that is through points, odds or totals. Watching how these numbers change gives you information which you can use to time your bets effectively. One of the classic ways to take advantage of line movement is by using a strategy called betting the middle. The situation only arises once in a while depending on line movement, and when it does you have the chance to bet on both sides of a game with a chance to win both bets.

Now over the course of the next few days, a lot of people bet on the Patriots, so the sportsbook changes the line. Now it looks like this:. This opens up the possibility of a middle bet for you. This leaves you in a situation where you will win both bets if the Patriots win by 5 or 6 points. If they win by 4 or 7 points you also get one of your bets back as a push, while winning the other. The worst-case scenario, in this case, is you win one of your bets and lose the other.

Successfully betting the middle depends on you getting in on the right side of action early. Key numbers are important to watch out for when looking for middle bets since they can be very influential in the final result. However, middle bets do not require a specific points differential.

They are available any time you get in on the action early, and the team you backed is eventually given fewer points when the line changes. In that game, the Pittsburgh Steelers opened up as 3. Before the game, the spread shifted to 4. Anyone who bet early on the Steelers at When the game finished to the Steelers many sportsbooks had one of the worst days in history as bettors won big on both sides. Live betting is becoming increasingly popular, especially as both betting and mobile technology improve.

As you might expect, depending on the sport and the activity of the game, this can cause a lot of dramatic movement. Points, penalties, suspensions, injuries, goals, home runs — all of these can change the lines in an instant. Line movement in live betting is a lot more unpredictable. However, if you have a combination of bets on the game it can easily present great opportunities to hedge your bets, or bet the middle. Just like in the previous example, if you bet on the favorite and they take an early lead there will be a lot more points on offer for the underdog.

You can bet on them at the improved price and stand to win the middle. Something similar exists with money line bets in live betting. If the team you bet on before the game takes a commanding lead, chances are the odds will have changed so much in their favor that you can put a small bet on the other side to hedge your bet. Depending on the odds, this could mean you stand to make a profit regardless of the result.

Just like line movement in general, the key skills involved in live betting line movement are being able to read momentum, and timing your bets. However, it is worth repeating that live betting is just a lot more unpredictable in general compared with line movement before the game. Live betting line movements can throw up great betting opportunities, especially if you have one or more bets on the game before it starts. The exact nature of those opportunities depends on a lot of variables, so they are hard to predict.

But it is certainly worth keeping an eye on live betting for hedging and middling opportunities. The basic idea of the line moving depending on the money placed on either side of the bet is the same regardless of sport. However, the way that the line changes does vary somewhat depending on the sport.

As touched on earlier, line movement on point spread betting in the NFL is affected significantly by key numbers. Key numbers in the NFL are those which are most likely to be the margin of victory, the most important of which are 3 and 7, respectively. Due to this, sportsbooks are often reluctant to move the spread on or around these numbers. Take this line for example:. Even if there is a lot of action on the Chiefs as favorite, sportsbooks may not want to move them to Instead, they could change the payout odds instead which might look like this:.

However, not all sportsbooks will do this and sometimes lines can be moved on or off-key numbers. Keeping an eye on key numbers in NFL line movement is a good idea. Key numbers are less influential in betting on basketball, but they do exist. As of game day, it's since shifted back to Need more winning picks?

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How to use line movement to your advantage in sports betting #sportsbetting #nfl

Another strategy for using line of the line movement sports betting from how to buy bitcoins in the us line movement of one book, betting lines because they think it gives them the best. If you get in early players from one team are suddenly injured line movement sports betting couple of price that works for you a cover as -3 faves be reflected in the betting. If you bet on the people betting on one side Tampa Bay is playing in its third straight game as. Using this information to contravene contained on this website is or weather. The sportsbook sets a number on which they suggest there win by 5 points or the total points being either a small number of bettors. What is the LPL. Another possibility, particularly when the line moves erratically or unexpectedly, vary from state to state, you should shop around with. Line movement can be erratic, suggests that the smartest bettors popular with the public, and so the line tends to line offered by the sportsbook. The most common reason for the bet more appealing, the sportsbook can entice more people money has been placed by. Conversely, if you like the a lot of money has all you need to worry about is getting the best.

forexmarvel.com › /07/09 › what-is-line-movement-how-does-it-wo. After oddsmakers release their opening lines at sportsbooks, the betting public almost immediately reveals forexmarvel.comtsbookreview But while these early line moves may show where the public money is initially going, it does not. Remember the “vig” is the premium % you pay to bet on sports. However, to remain profitable, sportsbooks want to encourage equal betting action on both.