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In the late 19th and early 20th centuries there was a sturdy betting market on presidential elections among Wall Street traders which was well regarded for its accuracy in predicting the result. There was similar activity in the City of London and West End clubs — and with UK bookmakers, whose odds until were legally available only to the minority able to bet on credit.

In the US, bookmaking got itself associated with the Mob and became ever more taboo. In Britain it was legalised and democratised. Once the bookies came out of the shadows and into the high streets, political odds became universally available, and publicised. Perhaps Mikardo resented the competition. But he was not the only one expressing doubts. The Ladbrokes boss Cyril Stein enthusiastically embraced politics as a business opportunity. No one else shared his view that anyone might vote primarily to support their bet.

The number of people killed in the Vietnam war during a certain period, or dying during a cholera epidemic? And what Stein had grasped was that taking bets on events beyond sport had a remarkable spin-off: it got the company name into parts of the media it would never otherwise reach. This was not about simple, calculable profit and loss: embracing events beyond the sports pages offered fantastic PR. Deep down, Hill knew that, too. It made the bookies cautious for a while, yet the impression was created that these are not legalised mafiosi but sometimes naive good sports, and it has paid massive dividends for them.

And so, the bookmakers still pursue this kind of business, from customised novelty will a newborn son play cricket for England? But no sane bookmaker now accepts serious money on this stuff, or indeed anything where there is a risk of insider trading this includes betting on the next archbishop of Canterbury. On a general election, however, there is both huge interest and a level playing field: the PM hardly knows more than the rest of us. And the strange thing about political betting is that the punters can also have objectives over and above the customary chance of winning money.

It existed even before betting shops: there were reports of large credit bets before the election and in the s steel magnates were thought to have backed Labour heavily to get a consolation prize in case of nationalisation.

Freud won and held the seat for 14 years. The heart-not-head bet: Though the big money in the Scottish referendum was for No, nearly all the small bets were for Yes, apparently coming from shiny-faced pro-independence voters anxious to back their hopes, not their fears. The original purpose of both sides — trying to make a profit on the transaction — is certainly not absent.

Indeed, in recent years it has become more central. At the heart of this phenomenon is a new class somewhat different from the blokes who hang round the betting shops. Their bible is a somewhat clunky blog-cum-website, PoliticalBetting. No one can make money from the bookmakers by following conventional wisdom. And Smithson and his small team of contributors are particularly good at getting beyond that. This is a wonkish site first and foremost. But it certainly makes me feel clued up.

As does the rigour Smithson brings to the study of polling data. Real anoraky stats people, or political scientists with their own models. He is 45, and took a degree in politics and modern history at Manchester before becoming a Ladbrokes lifer. A few years back, the firm was looking for someone in the office to look after the politics bets. Sharpe is a long-standing master of the showbiz aspects of the operation. In particular, he arranged sponsorship to keep Screaming Lord Sutch in business as a national treasure through the s and s.

Sutch was the indifferent pop singer and magnificent self-publicist who stood in 41 elections, passing 1, votes just once. He added greatly to the national merriment, if not to his own, and committed suicide in , aged Though their background and perspectives are very different, both Sharpe and Shaddick see politics as a major growth area.

They also agree it is very different from other betting, and that there is little overlap between political punters and other clients until the final days of the campaign. Suspected political know-alls are treated with the same respect as a big-time racing insider. It is both a nuisance and a badge of honour to try to place a carefully worked-out wager and be told by a huge and allegedly fearless multinational that it will only accept a sum that would not even shake the toytown Iowa Electronic Markets, because the computer knows who you are.

This is especially likely if you are betting not on the next prime minister, or most seats, but on something obscure: perhaps supporting an outsider in a constituency the bookmakers had not even thought in play. This is a complicated battle of wits. However, they are the real gamblers. He said it is not unusual for there to be different betting lines on a single game.

The United States, however, has a far more diverse sports market, with five major professional sports leagues, plus college sports. Inside the stadium, betting odds crawl across advertising boards. Almost every Premier League soccer team has an official betting partner, which in some cases is a multimillion-dollar relationship that includes betting booths inside the stadium and dedicated websites.

Betting advertisements on television are so prevalent that they frequently outnumber those for beer and pizza companies on match days. Thanks to the availability of high-speed wifi and scores of smartphone applications dedicated to gambling, sports fans can do that and much more. Wagering, of course, is not limited to sports. The availability and ease of betting in the era of the internet has led to a recent government crackdown following a rise in compulsive gambling.

During the past decade, the gambling websites and smartphone applications have become ever more sophisticated. Data companies like Genius and market leader Sportradar, which has relationships with the N. That relationship came into harsh focus recently following an independent review of integrity in tennis.

Adam Lewis, a British lawyer, wrote the relationship between the International Tennis Federation and Sportradar was part of the problem, arguing that by providing betting companies with instant scores and other data from thousands of minor matches around the world, there were more opportunities to cheat.

Executives with Sportradar have argued their company and others like it also offer monitoring services, allowing them to spot suspicious betting patterns that might suggest a potential fix.