eastleigh by election betting line

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Eastleigh by election betting line

UKIP all the way! Thank you for your reply Marty, I had a slip of the fingers there header was right, first line wrong. You are right it was a low turnout and so not a true reflection and UKIP may do well as they have done in other recent past by elections. Do they have enough to get across the wining line? I simply don't think so. Does Labour have a momentum? I think they do. Whether I would like them to win is another matter but it is just my opinion.

I think Lib Dems will do ok. Not sure if the Tories will find new ground. Will UKIP mobalize the floaters? No matter what result we get it will be an interesting by election to follow. The party eventually agreed to help Hutchings with mobile phone, petrol and other costs. She was under a huge amount of strain and the party had to be strong-armed into supporting her. The source said Sir George Young, the chief whip, would have been alerted to concerns held on file. Curiouser and curiouser.

Why Sir George? Why is he dragged in, rather than — say— Greg Shapps, who is currently responsible? The Sunday Times piece concludes with a paragraph of ritual praise from Eric Pickles why him? One other mystery persists about this Sunday Times piece. On-line it is counterpointed by two graphics. Leave a comment. Filed under Conservative family values , Conservative Party policy.

Tagged as Eastleigh by-election , Sunday Times. Actually, his relationship with his own LibDem party might be considered to be … semi-detached. Today, according to Paul Waugh at politicshome , Harvey is all of a-tweet:. Maria Hutchings Conservative. This is the mantra that Mrs Hutchings and others keep repeating in their campaign to present the Tory candidate as ordinary, straight-talking and down-to-earth…. Back then, she promised to live in the town and commute to Westminster each day.

By some partial accounts , Mrs Hutchings is being very closely-minded. For crying out loud, neither of the two front-runners, Tory and LibDem, look anything more than old nag in-a-fancy-lasagne-packet. Tagged as Eastleigh by-election. After a week or so, the all-purpose political metaphor that is Richard III ought to have breathed its last. For while a core of irreconcilables would like to see Cameron buried beneath a car-park for several hundred years, like some latter-day Richard III, he has no obvious successor — in the Commons, at least although Boris Johnson lurks outside.

However, poor results in the local elections in May could put the prospect of a leadership challenge back on the table. Except, in that article, Goodman knocks off Labour in two sentences, and that in a bracketed aside:.

It follows that he will want his party, a distant third three years ago, to lie low and not filch support from left-leaning former Lib Dem voters. It is too early for Labour to write off its chances in Eastleigh. Where Malcolm sits, Rawnsley is by far the more observant, and has a better grasp of the history:. At first glance, Labour has no chance. Yet Labour cannot afford to sit it out and just jeer from the ringside as the coalition parties slug it out.

He declares that Labour is recovering support in southern England. So he must be seen to be trying to win here. And is it quite such a hopeless prospect for Labour as most people, including the bookies, are assuming? At the general elections of and , Labour came within fewer than 1, votes of winning Eastleigh. Admittedly, the shape of the seat and its demographics have changed considerably since then, but more recent elections also suggest that Labour should not entirely write off its chances.

At the general election, Labour achieved a similar score. Not this time. The blue sky of a three-way marginal is the limit. This is not posh Hampshire.

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Like most of Southern England outside London, Eastleigh is overwhelmingly White British, predominantly middle class, though there are working class areas, and economically active. In the Conservatives had won it with The sad death of the Conservative MP, Stephen Milligan, a rising star in the party, from what appeared to be a sex act gone wrong led to a by-election in The seat was held by the Lib Dems from then on.

The Conservatives, however, targeted Eastleigh which continually remained just out of reach. The Conservatives would gain votes, but the Lib Dems would succeed through tactical voting in their favour from Labour. Chidgey stood down in , to be replaced by Chris Huhne. In doing so the party lost Chidgeys personal vote and Huhne was only able to defeat the Conservatives by 1.

He increased this in to 7. In many other respects Eastleigh has become something of a fortress for the Lib Dems. The party currently holds all of the council seats in the constituency, giving it a stupendous majority on Eastleigh borough council of against the Conservatives with the 4 Conservatives holding seats in areas outside the constituency boundaries. Remarkably the Lib Dems have even managed to gain seats in Eastleigh since , gaining 2 in No other council is so dominated by the Lib Dems.

They also hold all six county council seats in the constituency and even managed to top the poll locally in the super-low turnout Police and Crime Commissioner elections held last year. So effective is the Lib Dem machine that local businesses advertise on the back of their leaflets due to their reach. Having such a strong activist base and so many councillors gives the Lib Dems a strong advantage in terms of knowledge of the seat and voting data, something the party exploits.

Chris Huhne Liberal Democrat Mike Thornton Liberal Democrats. The Lib Dems took the safe route with the selection of their candidate in the form of Mike Thornton. Thornton is a local councillor, which gave them the opportunity to localise the contest somewhat and avoid the associations with Nick Clegg that would have happened if the Lib Dems had run a Westminster insider.

Some on the campaign trail said he was boring, but this also meant he was uncontroversial. During the campaign it seemed as if the entire Lib Dem activist base had decamped to Eastleigh for the month. The Lib Dems have traditionally been very good at targeting seats they hoped to win and highly effective at by-elections.

While all parties notionally support increasing the housing stock nationally in practice at a local level people tend to think that the houses should be somewhere else! In a twist of fate for the Lib Dems, Rennard was publicly accused of sexual harassment by 10 female former Lib Dem activists during the campaign with the intimation that this is why he lost his position as Chief Exec. The Rennard allegations created significant questions for the leadership, with their knowledge of the allegations being a key question.

Rumours about Rennard had circulated in the Westminster village for years, but there had never been proof. The Lib Dems were therefore faced an ironic situation where they may have lost the by-election due to the behaviour of Chris Rennard, a man who had previously been seen as responsible for many historic Lib Dem by-election wins. Nonetheless the party broadly remained the favourite, though not overwhelmingly so, during the campaign. Maria Hutchings Conservative. The Conservatives once again ran their candidate from , Maria Hutchings, a local businesswoman.

This was unsurprising given that the party needed a candidate with local credentials to take on the Liberal Democrat strategy of localised pavement politics. With the party having no local councillors Hutchings almost certainly represented the person in the party who knew the seat and its voters the best.

She also stated that she would have voted for a motion backed by many Conservative rebels in the Commons for a referendum on European Union membership, another source of great division in the heavily Eurosceptic party. This was in contrast to Thornton, whose daughter had had a state education and who is now currently studying Medicine! In the by-election Labour had succeeded in coming second in Eastleigh, beating the Conservatives into third place.

While no one expected Labour to win the by-election unless extremely lucky, there was an opportunity here to give a sense of momentum by winning back tactical voters from the Lib Dems, and put down a marker that Labour were viable in the South of England outside London and a few urban conurbations, the weakest area for the party.

Being a comedian his twitter feed included many humourous quips about the by-election. Eastleigh had a special resonance for UKIP as during the by-election their candidate had been none other than Nigel Farage, their current leader. Farage turned down the opportunity to campaign in the seat again, however. UKIP ran a surprisingly slick campaign in Eastleigh, and managed to succeed in gaining momentum as the campaign went on.

The party nonetheless gained controversy when its leaflets claimed that when immigration laws are relaxed later this year 4 million Bulgarians would come to the UK the population of Bulgaria is 7. On Election Day the party pulled ahead of the Conservatives in the betting odds and there were many rumours of a late surge for the party. In the grand tradition of British by-elections many minor party, fringe and joke party candidates stood.

In all 14 candidates stood. Iain MacLennan, for the first time. Jim Duggan stood for the Peace Party, Colin Bex stood for the Wessex Regionalists and Ray Hall ran for the Beer, Baccy and Crumpet party, a single issue party which campaigns against pub closures and for the rural way of life. Five polls were carried out during the campaign. The most notable thing from the polls was the fall in the Labour vote and the increase in the UKIP vote.

Mike Thornton Liberal Democrat The Lib Dems therefore succeeded in holding their seat, something which they are exceptionally happy about. The Lib Dem victory does indeed have much to commend it. Despite the hard times of coalition, the Rennard scandal, the jail term of Chris Huhne which had started the whole by-election the Lib Dems had succeeded in running a well-targeted, slick campaign won on local issues, with a solid dependable local candidate.

This will be the model the Lib Dems will pursue in and on this by-election gave them some confidence that they may save more seats than many expect. That said, this is a rather pyrrhic victory. In a sense they only won because the Conservatives lost almost as much of their vote as they did, and the Lib Dem loss is in line with national opinion polls too. UKIP also pulled off a victory of sorts. This gives the party a continued feeling of momentum.

The Conservatives are reeling. Coming in second would have been poor, but understandable, coming third puts the party in an extremely difficult position. The party is calling this a mid-term protest vote and noting that voters often vote against the government in these types of elections. The whole argument also ignores that Maria Hutchings stood on a platform that was clearly right of the party leadership. This is hardly the marker that they can win votes in the South of England which the party wanted.

Polls suggest that the party lost around half its support over the course of the campaign with most probably going to the Lib Dems, but some also likely going to abstention or UKIP. By running a comedian from South London Labour appear to have given the local electorate the idea that they were not taking Eastleigh seriously. Posted on March 3, , in By-elections , United Kingdom.

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A by-election was held in Eastleigh, England on the 28 th of February. The Seat Eastleigh is a railway town a town that primarily developed because of its railway station in the South of England. Diane James, the UKIP candidate, said she felt she had to justify publicly why she did not have children in the face of a Tory campaign focusing on the fact that Hutchings is an accomplished mother of four.

I presume the Conservatives are mentioning that their candidate is a mother because they want to focus on family values. If that seems odd, it is because it is — to the extent of weirdness. After a side-track three paragraphs on the betting odds — LibDems , Tories and Labour on , we are back to the complex private life of Mrs Hutchings:. Some Tory activists have privately expressed concerns over the selection of Hutchings as their candidate.

The party eventually agreed to help Hutchings with mobile phone, petrol and other costs. She was under a huge amount of strain and the party had to be strong-armed into supporting her. The source said Sir George Young, the chief whip, would have been alerted to concerns held on file. Curiouser and curiouser. Why Sir George? Why is he dragged in, rather than — say— Greg Shapps, who is currently responsible? The Sunday Times piece concludes with a paragraph of ritual praise from Eric Pickles why him?

One other mystery persists about this Sunday Times piece. On-line it is counterpointed by two graphics. Leave a comment. Filed under Conservative family values , Conservative Party policy. Tagged as Eastleigh by-election , Sunday Times. Actually, his relationship with his own LibDem party might be considered to be … semi-detached. Today, according to Paul Waugh at politicshome , Harvey is all of a-tweet:.

Maria Hutchings Conservative. This is the mantra that Mrs Hutchings and others keep repeating in their campaign to present the Tory candidate as ordinary, straight-talking and down-to-earth…. Back then, she promised to live in the town and commute to Westminster each day. By some partial accounts , Mrs Hutchings is being very closely-minded.

For crying out loud, neither of the two front-runners, Tory and LibDem, look anything more than old nag in-a-fancy-lasagne-packet. Tagged as Eastleigh by-election. After a week or so, the all-purpose political metaphor that is Richard III ought to have breathed its last. For while a core of irreconcilables would like to see Cameron buried beneath a car-park for several hundred years, like some latter-day Richard III, he has no obvious successor — in the Commons, at least although Boris Johnson lurks outside.

However, poor results in the local elections in May could put the prospect of a leadership challenge back on the table. Except, in that article, Goodman knocks off Labour in two sentences, and that in a bracketed aside:. It follows that he will want his party, a distant third three years ago, to lie low and not filch support from left-leaning former Lib Dem voters.

It is too early for Labour to write off its chances in Eastleigh. Where Malcolm sits, Rawnsley is by far the more observant, and has a better grasp of the history:. At first glance, Labour has no chance. Yet Labour cannot afford to sit it out and just jeer from the ringside as the coalition parties slug it out. He declares that Labour is recovering support in southern England. So he must be seen to be trying to win here.

And is it quite such a hopeless prospect for Labour as most people, including the bookies, are assuming? At the general elections of and , Labour came within fewer than 1, votes of winning Eastleigh.

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'We are coming up on the rails': Farage boasts that UKIP could defy the odds to win three-horse race in Eastleigh by-election. By Matt Chorley. Sports Live Betting Odds Bovada. Eastleigh FC1 3. Yeovil Town1 4. Draw. + 28 Bets. (+); + (). ; +; + O (+); U (). Posts about Eastleigh by-election written by Malcolm Redfellow. After a side-​track (three paragraphs on the betting odds — LibDems , Tories and.