The Colts had a scoring differential of plus and outgained opponents by yards. They'll have a tough road as the No. In those two victories, they allowed just That's why the model predicts they'll win the AFC in 6. The model has also made the call on the postseason outlook for every other NFL contender. It's also high on another double-digit longshot to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. You can see the model's NFL futures picks here. So which NFL futures bets should you be all over? And which longshot is a must-back?
Jan 6, at am ET 2 min read. Our Latest Stories Brown Jr. We are officially into the practice week for the NFL Playoffs. The practice participation reports will give us a better handle on which injuries are worth noting heading into the weekend. These offer detail on how the public is betting each of the games between the point spread, point total, and money line. Each of the four games offers a little something different to note. The underdog Bills are getting a lot of love in this one.
Bettor beware! This is the most lop-sided game for sports bettors. Bettors also expect a shootout, with 92 percent of the handle over the point total of The Eagles opened as field goal favorites, but that line flipped in a hurry and Seattle is now a two-point favorite.
The betting public is firmly in support of that move. Gambling problem?
Add to that the fact NFL Weather estimates the temperatures could dip below freezing at Lambeau and it might be a rough night for the California native. Since becoming the true leading man in the backfield against Arizona in Week 13 the rookie has hit this line in four of the five games he has played, averaging Green Bay has allowed an average of MVS himself has been held catchless in his last three home starts, with Rodgers not even looking his way last time out against the Titans.
His snap share has steadily decreased down the stretch too. He was on the field for The 7 overall pick in that draft, Josh Allen, has been imperious under centre for the Bills this year, but his Buffalo team may consider themselves lucky to be here after a very testing outing against Indianapolis last weekend. In their last five matches, Baltimore has had more rushing yards than any team has over a five-game stretch since — after racking up in their victory over the Tennessee Titans last weekend.
That win was important for more reasons than just their postseason hopes, and helped to dispel a lot of narratives surrounding Lamar Jackson and his ability to play from behind and in the play-offs. He could be due for another big game here too, against a Buffalo defense that has spent most of the season inviting sides to run against them and playing soft coverage to prevent the deep ball.
Jackson has gone over this total in five of his last six games, averaging Whilst not on the same caliber as Jackson, Allen is an exceptional dual threat quarterback in his own right and has the ability to escape the pressure the Ravens are undoubtedly going to bring and make plays with his legs.
Diggs has hauled in seven or more catches in eight of his last nine and should get his no matter what. With all but one game from Super Wild-Card Weekend either in the books or currently being played, here's a look at how our experts break down the Browns-Steelers finale.
But the Steelers defense will respond to that and play well here. Roethlisberger came alive in the second half of his last game against the Colts and I think that will carry over against the Browns. The Steelers own the Browns in Pittsburgh and that will continue. SportsLine managing editor R.
White has been superb handicapping the Steelers, owning a record on his last 37 against-the-spread picks involving the Pittsburgh. As for who he likes this week, head on over to SportsLine to find out. Steelers -6? That seems crazy to me. And there's buy back in some spots on the Browns. I love Pittsburgh here. It's the ultimate "no one believes in us" game because no one is backing the Browns here. It could be curtains for an incredible Browns season.
Both of those games would have gone Under at this current total. Cleveland finished the season with a point differential and have shown the ability to slow their games down with a strong running game, which could help keep this game Under. Baker Mayfield Under
That's why the model predicts they'll win the AFC in 6. The model has also made the call on the postseason outlook for every other NFL contender. It's also high on another double-digit longshot to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. You can see the model's NFL futures picks here.
So which NFL futures bets should you be all over? And which longshot is a must-back? Jan 6, at am ET 2 min read. Our Latest Stories Brown Jr. Power Rankings: Wrapping up season Pete Prisco 2 min read. Super Bowl hangover real? Here's a look Bryan DeArdo 10 min read. I expect the Bills to win this game as a home favorite this season , but expecting them to win by a full touchdown is a little too high for my liking, and a Colts victory is certainly within the cards due to that ferocious defense.
I love betting the total in this game. The Colts are to the over this season and the Bills are an astounding Over their last eight games, the Colts have not scored fewer than 26 points in any game, and they have gone over 28 points nine times on the season.
Over the Bills' last eight games, they too have not scored fewer than 26 points in any game, and they have gone over 28 points nine times on the season. If we assume that the Colts and Bills will each match their lowest-scoring game over the last eight weeks, the game will go to overtime at , which is already over the total of I also love betting over the total because both teams are on fire, going combined over their last five games, and averaging In my opinion, the only thing that can make this total stay under, besides an injury to the quarterbacks, is the Buffalo weather.
Buffalo is an outside stadium subject to the elements. The city is freezing this time of year and is certainly no stranger to heavy snow. However, the forecast for the game on Saturday shows partly cloudy skies and virtually no wind, perfect weather for football. I predict this game will end with the Bills winning Player Props: Stefon Diggs over 7. I love the over on both of Diggs' player props.
He is on a complete tear right now and finished the season catching seven or more receptions in every game since Week 10, and at least nine receptions in every game since Week Last week, he only caught seven receptions, but he only played the first half of the game. He has also gone over his total of Last week, he finished with 76 receiving yards in only one half of football. Diggs will be fed early and often and he should go over both of these totals. Nyheim Hines is a game-script play.
What I mean by that is the Colts will not be able to get a comfortable lead and lean on the run game. This usually results in many pass-catching opportunities for Hines. He has caught at least four receptions in three out of his last four games, and the game he failed to reach four receptions was against the Texans where they leaned on Jonathan Taylor the majority of the game. Speaking of Jonathan Taylor, he has been an absolute monster since Week 12, surpassing his total of He has scored a TD in five straight games, and the Colts are going to have to give him plenty of carries in order to slow the game down and keep the ball away from Buffalo.
Buffalo is giving up only rush yards per game, but most of their opponents had to abandon the run in the second half. Buffalo is actually not very good at stopping the run, allowing 4. Taylor should find plenty of running room on Saturday. He has taken monumental leaps from where he was this time last year, and his competitive drive is unwavering.
He will do anything necessary to will his team to a victory on Saturday afternoon, and that means keeping the ball in his hands on crucial downs. The Buffalo rushing attack has been pitiful, so Josh Allen may be their best bet at production on the ground. He is elusive in the pocket and fast enough to outrun linebackers, and he will take off at a moment's notice if the play breaks down. He also has the wheels to gain 26 rushing yards on one play. I am fading this game at all costs. The Rams Defense is too good to trust the Seahawks skill players to produce high numbers, but Russell Wilson is so good that it might not matter.
Further, the status for Jared Goff is unknown, and if he does play, he is one week removed from thumb surgery so trusting him to produce would not be wise. The Seahawks and Rams always play close tight games, so I am not even comfortable betting the money line on this one because it could easily go either way.
The total seems low at Even the player props are too close to call. Metcalf will be locked down by Jalen Ramsey who held him to under 60 receiving yards in both regular-season games, and Tyler Lockett has been equally disappointing against the Rams. He also does not produce a ton of stats two weeks in a row, and last week he went for 12 receptions for 90 yards and two touchdowns.
Expect a down week for Lockett. This is one game I will simply sit back and watch with nothing on the line. Playoff matchups tend to be closer than people think, so I am not a fan of playing favorites with a spread of -7 or higher. Here the Bucs would have to win by nine to cover the -8 spread, which is a tall order. The Football Team has an excellent defense and pass-rush which should routinely make Tom Brady uncomfortable and keep the game within reach, but no one expects them to actually win this game.
That makes this game in particular ripe for a teaser, which I will toss out later. The total of If the Bucs win , the number stayed under even though the game was a blowout. I can't trust that the Football team will be able to score enough points to get to a total of Player Props: J.
McKissic over 4. Taking the over on J. McKissic's receptions total has been like printing money against tough teams. Since Week 5, McKissic has failed to hit this number in only five games. Most notably is the fact that all five of those games were games that the Football Team won. In every losing game since Week 4, McKissic has had at least five receptions, and I expect them to lose this game. That is also the reason I love Logan Thomas' receptions prop.
The Football team is likely to be trailing and forced to throw more than they want, and Thomas is averaging nine targets per game over his last six games, and he caught at least four balls in five of them. It is going to be really hard for him to not catch four passes if he stays healthy for the whole game. Player props for the Buccaneers' receivers are not out yet because the status of Mike Evans is still unknown, but I am avoiding the rushing props at all costs due to the Football Teams stout run defense.
Spread : BAL This is the highest total on the slate and I am still taking the over. The Ravens are averaging The Titans are also setting scoreboards on fire, averaging This game has all the makings of a high-scoring shootout. Over the season the Titans are to the over and are allowing an average of 29 points per game over their last eight games. The Ravens Defense has been stingy lately, but I don't really give them credit since four of their last five games have come against the Jaguars, the Giants, the Bengals, and the Cowboys.
Their last opponent against a playoff team was the Browns, whom they allowed 42 points to that game, and when they faced the Titans earlier in the season they gave up 30 points. Neither team will have trouble putting up points in this game and it should comfortably sail over Weather will not be a factor in this one.
I predict the Ravens will win Player Props: Lamar Jackson over Dobbins over Brown over Over his last five games, Jackson is averaging 86 rush yards per game, and he has the wheels to pick up huge chunk plays at a time. He should hit this number by the third quarter. Similarly, J. Dobbins has been shredding opposing defenses for weeks now. Over his last nine games, he has had at least 11 carries in all but one he left early with an injury , and he is averaging a staggering 6.
Simple math tells us that if he gets his floor of 11 carries, he should produce at least 66 rush yards. However, he is actually averaging 6. Dobbins has been nothing short of efficient and explosive and I like him to get carries in this game. Similarly to Dobbins. Marquise Brown has finally hit his stride. Hollywood Brown was looking like Lifetime Channel Brown for a majority of the season, but over his last six games, he is averaging seven targets for four receptions, 56 yards, and one touchdown per game.
What's even more enticing is the Titans' defense has been as effective as a screen door on a submarine this season. Over their last six games, they have allowed the opposing team's WR1 to average If Brown does not surpass I also like the overs on A. Brown and Corey Davis' receiving yards props because Tannehill is going to have to throw a lot in this game to give the Titans a chance. Derrick Henry is a beast of a man, but all of the Ravens' defensive attention will be on him which should create plenty of throwing lanes for Tannehill and winnable mismatches for his receivers.
I think Brown will surpass receiving yards and Davis will fall between the 70s and 90s. I am also fading this game at all costs. The Saints Defense is one of the best in the league, allowing only No one should have any confidence that the Bears will be able to move the ball in this one.
Due to the uncertainties with the Saints and the Bears' expected difficulty in moving the ball, the wise move is to simply lay off betting this game. In regard to player props, only Michael Thomas and David Montgomery have lines posted out of the skill position players. Accordingly, I am avoiding the player props in this game as well. The spread on this game is right in our sweet spot at The Steelers should win this game rather easily given what we know. This week, future Hall-of-Fame quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is back, and there is no question that he makes this team drastically more lethal.
That is a huge blow to the Browns as Stefanski is an elite play-caller, and a huge reason that the Browns were able to make the playoffs for the first time since Now they have to go into battle without their General. I think this will simply be too much to overcome and the Browns will fall to the Steelers by a score of Player props: Diontae Johnson over 6.
The Browns player props are not posted yet, but when they are I will update this article because I am likely going to take the over on Jarvis Landry 's receptions and Nick Chubb 's rushing yards. Landry has caught at least five passes in each of his last five games, the Browns are going to have to throw it early and often to keep up in this one. Chubb just ran for yards against the Steelers last week and is averaging Now, the prop that is available that I am betting is Diontae Johnson over 6.
Johnson is without a doubt Roethlisberger's favorite target. He is averaging The Steelers have no running game to speak of and Roethlisberger is averaging I like Johnson to see targets and to catch between eight to 10 passes in this divisional matchup.
Many of the pieces are in place in Los Angeles, especially at quarterback with Justin Herbert, but they lost too many close games and brought in an entirely new coaching staff because of it. Excluding a drubbing at the hands of the Patriots, the Chargers lost their other eight games by an average of six points per game. All but one of those eight losses were by one possession, and Los Angeles had the lead in the fourth quarter in nearly all of them.
Some bad luck, some bad coaching. Both areas should see improvement in , and this team clearly has the talent at the skill positions to compete right out of the gate. Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Carolina Panthers The Panthers were a pesky but young team with good young coaching staff, led by first-year head coach Matt Rhule. Los Angeles Chargers Despite finishing 10th in the league in both total offense and total defense in , the Chargers ended the season under.
This is not a team he likes to face, at all. His line of Both teams will look to run the ball as much as possible and avoid putting it in harms way against two solid defenses. Tom Brady steers his swashbuckling Buccaneers northward, as they sail into Maryland to challenge Chase Young and his rowdy rabble of defenders.
Before I get into my picks for this article, I have to say how unbelievably incredible it is that Alex Smith and Ron Rivera have taken this side to the postseason. In November , Smith suffered a horrific injury spiral compound fracture of the tibia and fibula that almost cost him his life. Now his Washington team is preparing for their first play-off game in five years, coached by a man that spent the start of the regular season battling and beating a form of skin cancer — including taking IV at the HALF-TIME of their games because he was so fatigued.
He was an interesting watch when he came in against Carolina in Week 16 and will definitely be a bit more adventurous with deep shots than the man he is replacing. The former Detroit Lion has actually become more of an aerial threat than a ground threat this season; with a total of receiving yards to rushing yards. On the other side of the ball, serial winner Tom Brady will be appearing in the wildcard round for the first time in 11 years and his first time ever as a Tampa Bay Buccaneer.
A couple of years ago, the thought of Tom Brady in primetime would invoke a sense of confidence and excitement. Now, not so much. Brady has thrown a pick in six of his last eight primetime games, and now faces a Washington defense that ranks second against the pass.
A bit like Charlie from Charlie's Angles, the ubiquitous WeLoveBetting Editorial Team are the all-seeing eyes of the site, making sure the web monkeys keep the site running. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. Notify me via e-mail if anyone answers my comment. Top tips for eliminating Outcome Bias in your betting. Indianapolis Colts Buffalo Bills Saturday 9th January , Sky Sports The first play-off game of the season gets underway at on Saturday, as the 2 seed Buffalo Bills welcome the 7 seed Indianapolis Colts to Orchard Park for their first home postseason tie since Share This Article Share on twitter.
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