understanding line movement in sports betting

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Understanding line movement in sports betting best cryptocurrency to invest in 2021

Understanding line movement in sports betting

Line movement is also very important for hedging. If you get in early and the line moves so that your side of the bet comes down in odds or points, chances are you can bet on the other side to reduce your risk. This is only possible when the line moves in your favor. One more technique to use if you know which side you like: decide on a price that works for you and wait to see if the line moves onto your price.

Well, line movement can help you pick. Take this example:. This line movement indicates that a lot of money has been placed on the Celtics in a short space of time. Although movement does tend to go against the favorite, it is often quite gradual.

A big jump like this suggests that the smartest bettors with the most money or sharps think that the original line offered by the sportsbook was very good value. If you spot a situation like this, a good move will be to quickly check other sportsbooks to see if the Celtics are available anywhere else at Since sportsbooks react to the bets they receive themselves as opposed to bets received by other sportsbooks lines move at different speeds in different books.

Once you have an idea of the value from the line movement of one book, you should shop around with others to find the best price. As you gain more experience in sports betting, you will become more familiar with the way the lines move. Both the direction of the line movement and the timing of the line movement gives us information.

Dramatic movement over a short period of time indicates big money from clued-in bettors. Gradual movement in one direction indicates public perception. Depending on the kind of bet, line movement will look different. Basically, the sportsbook decides on the most likely margin of victory and gives each side a points handicap accordingly.

If you bet on the Colts, they need to win by four points or more for you to win. Here, the line has moved so that the Colts are even bigger favorites. Now, if you bet on them they will need to win by 5 points or more for you to win your bet.

Line movement in point spread betting is all about sportsbooks making the suggested margin of victory more attractive or less attractive. If you notice the numbers in a point spread bet getting higher over time ie, more points between the teams , it means the majority of money is being placed on the favorite.

If the numbers are getting lower, the majority of the money is going on the underdog. Key numbers are significant for moving point spreads. You can read our more comprehensive guide to key numbers here. If you see a spread moving on or off a key number, it is worth considering how this could affect a bet. Moneyline bets are probably the simplest form of betting. In this case, the sportsbook makes up for the difference in quality between the two teams not with points, but with odds.

Betting on the underdog will win more than betting on the favorite. If the values get larger then the majority of money is being placed on the favorite. If they get smaller, then the majority is going on the underdog. Point total bets involve betting on the total number of points scored in a game.

The sportsbook sets a number on which they suggest there is a fifty-fifty shot of the total points being either over or under. The line might look like this:. In this case, if you bet the over you will win if there is a total of points or more scored in the game. If you bet the under, you will win if there is a total of or fewer points scored.

If a lot of bets came in on the Over in this case, the points total might rise to entice more bets on the Under. In this case, if you liked the Over, you would have been better to bet early before the line moved. However, if you liked the Under, you will have gotten a better price by waiting.

Of the three types of movement here, totals are the most affected by factors like weather and injuries to creative players, since these can have a major effect on the number of points scored. All of the above examples are different forms of the same activity from sportsbooks. The books move the lines because they want to make one side of the bet more attractive, whether that is through points, odds or totals. Watching how these numbers change gives you information which you can use to time your bets effectively.

One of the classic ways to take advantage of line movement is by using a strategy called betting the middle. The situation only arises once in a while depending on line movement, and when it does you have the chance to bet on both sides of a game with a chance to win both bets. Now over the course of the next few days, a lot of people bet on the Patriots, so the sportsbook changes the line.

Now it looks like this:. This opens up the possibility of a middle bet for you. This leaves you in a situation where you will win both bets if the Patriots win by 5 or 6 points. If they win by 4 or 7 points you also get one of your bets back as a push, while winning the other. The worst-case scenario, in this case, is you win one of your bets and lose the other.

Successfully betting the middle depends on you getting in on the right side of action early. Key numbers are important to watch out for when looking for middle bets since they can be very influential in the final result. However, middle bets do not require a specific points differential.

They are available any time you get in on the action early, and the team you backed is eventually given fewer points when the line changes. In that game, the Pittsburgh Steelers opened up as 3. Before the game, the spread shifted to 4. Anyone who bet early on the Steelers at When the game finished to the Steelers many sportsbooks had one of the worst days in history as bettors won big on both sides. Live betting is becoming increasingly popular, especially as both betting and mobile technology improve.

As you might expect, depending on the sport and the activity of the game, this can cause a lot of dramatic movement. Points, penalties, suspensions, injuries, goals, home runs — all of these can change the lines in an instant. Line movement in live betting is a lot more unpredictable. However, if you have a combination of bets on the game it can easily present great opportunities to hedge your bets, or bet the middle.

Just like in the previous example, if you bet on the favorite and they take an early lead there will be a lot more points on offer for the underdog. You can bet on them at the improved price and stand to win the middle. Something similar exists with money line bets in live betting.

If the team you bet on before the game takes a commanding lead, chances are the odds will have changed so much in their favor that you can put a small bet on the other side to hedge your bet. Depending on the odds, this could mean you stand to make a profit regardless of the result.

Just like line movement in general, the key skills involved in live betting line movement are being able to read momentum, and timing your bets. However, it is worth repeating that live betting is just a lot more unpredictable in general compared with line movement before the game. Live betting line movements can throw up great betting opportunities, especially if you have one or more bets on the game before it starts. The exact nature of those opportunities depends on a lot of variables, so they are hard to predict.

But it is certainly worth keeping an eye on live betting for hedging and middling opportunities. The basic idea of the line moving depending on the money placed on either side of the bet is the same regardless of sport. However, the way that the line changes does vary somewhat depending on the sport.

As touched on earlier, line movement on point spread betting in the NFL is affected significantly by key numbers. Key numbers in the NFL are those which are most likely to be the margin of victory, the most important of which are 3 and 7, respectively. Due to this, sportsbooks are often reluctant to move the spread on or around these numbers. Take this line for example:. Even if there is a lot of action on the Chiefs as favorite, sportsbooks may not want to move them to Instead, they could change the payout odds instead which might look like this:.

However, not all sportsbooks will do this and sometimes lines can be moved on or off-key numbers. Keeping an eye on key numbers in NFL line movement is a good idea. Key numbers are less influential in betting on basketball, but they do exist. Furthermore, sportsbooks are likely to not worry about those numbers when they move the spread so they are easier to pick up. Again, you can read more about key numbers in our guide. All of the forms of line movement we have looked at closely in this section, point spread, totals, and money line, are common in the NBA.

With games per team in the regular season, there is a lot of room for line movement in MLB betting. The runline is a popular form of betting in MLB, which is like a cross between point spread betting and money line betting. A runline bet involves a 1. With the runline, the spread never changes from 1. It may look like this:. This looks slightly different from our previous examples but the principle is exactly the same.

While the 1. This affects line movement when it comes to NHL totals bets too, which are less likely to move as much as the other sports. Moneyline bets are most popular in NHL, and they are just as susceptible to line movement as other sports, and follow the same patterns. Understanding line movement will make you a more well-rounded sports bettor. The more experience you have in the world of betting, the more you will develop a feel for how lines move.

Truly great sports bettors can smell when something is not right with a betting line, and will get in at just the right time before the line jumps. Line movement most commonly occurs when the large majority of the money in a bet is on one side. Deepening on the patterns of change, line movement can tell you a lot about how the general public is leaning, and how the sharp money is leaning. As a rule of thumb: dramatic changes in a short time indicates sharp money. Gradual change in one direction over time suggests casual bettors.

Line movement can also be caused by external factors such as injuries or team selection, so make sure you consider this possibility before you draw any conclusions about why the line has moved. Always keep in mind that line movement is fluid. What looks like a great play in the morning can seem disastrous by the time evening rolls around. Remember to make sure you understand why a line is moving in a certain direction, or what could make a line move in a certain direction, before placing a bet.

We will take a look at these big moves now. These bettors wager large sums of money on games and view their wagers as investments, rather than casual bets. As a result, knowing what side the sharps are betting can give you valuable insight on projecting line movements.

The public is defined as bettors who casually bet on a game. Sportsbooks and oddsmakers are well aware of the tendencies of casual bettors, and the general rule that they like to bet on favorites and the over on game totals. Betting percentages are key to knowing what side of a bet is public indicated by which side has a greater percentage of the bets placed and which one is backed by sharps indicated by which side has a greater percentage of the money placed on a particular side.

There are plenty of tools available to track the number of tickets on a certain side of a bet, along with the amount of money as a percentage of the number of bets, that can indicate sharp plays to get ahead of line movement in your favor. The Action Network is one service I use to track these numbers. Reverse line movement is a prime example of the nuance surrounding the shifting of odds. Your first inclination could be that the line will move to or , but instead the Maple Leafs moneyline drops to This is called reverse line movement.

If a line moves in a different direction than expected, it is most likely because there was a greater percentage of money placed on the other side. The sharps are on the underdog Canadiens. As a result, sportsbooks are forced to adjust the line in order to entice a larger percentage of money on the other side. How should we react to reverse line movement?

In general, the rule of thumb is to fade the public. Sharp bettors have a long track record of success, and although they do lose bets, they by and large win more bets than they lose. One of the easiest ways to follow sharp action is to follow reverse line movement. However, you can maximize profit by being on the side of sharps before the line moves to adjust to them.

There are a few more common betting strategies surrounding line movement that we will discuss. These strategies — middling, playing key numbers, and buying points — are all important to maximizing your profits in the world of sports betting. We will look at a quick example to illustrate middling, this time using the NBA.

A few hours before the game, a key Laker is ruled out, and the line moves heavily towards the Celtics:. Only to be considered when a line moves more than a few points, middling can be used to both maximize your profits on a particular bet or hedge against a loss. The second strategy we will discuss is playing key numbers.

Key numbers are much more relevant in football and to a lesser extent, basketball than they are in other sports with fixed runlines or pucklines like baseball and hockey. Key numbers in football especially in the NFL are very important. Key numbers are numbers that, more often than not, end up being the score differential that a game hinges on. Given that a touchdown and an extra point is worth seven points, and a field goal is worth three points, the key numbers in football are 3 and 7.

These key numbers are crucial to betting NFL point spreads. Per Wizard of Odds , a 3 point margin of victory occurs A 7 point margin of victory occurs 9. A full table can be found on their page, which uses data from to , but it is safe to say that 3 and 7 are the biggest key numbers in the NFL. Knowing where the line is going to move is essential to playing key numbers and getting good prices on your bets.

The third strategy we will discuss in the world of line movement is buying points. Buying points allows the bettor the option of moving the point spread or totals in your favor when betting on football or basketball. When betting favorites, buying points allows a bettor to take off a half point, a full point, or 1. And when betting underdogs, a bettor can add a half point, a full point, or 1.

Sportsbooks vary in the price of buying points, but the general rule is that a half point is worth an extra ten cents in juice. In our earlier NFL example, if you wanted to buy points with the Ravens Knowing and playing key numbers is also crucial to buying points, and sportsbooks know this. Most sportsbooks will charge twenty-five cents as opposed to ten cents when buying on or off key numbers of 3 or 7. Being able to project line movement will help you buy points in a certain direction away from line movement.

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You track the movement of similar properties and situations and then make the most educated guess possible. You want to grab the line that gives your side the most points and pays out the best odds. Line movement occurs when a significant amount of money whether it be Sharp or Public comes in on one side or another. To limit their exposure, sportsbooks will move the spread going forward. Odds correspond to how much a bet will pay out. Sharps track the NFL lines, just like investors track real estate prices and stock trends, to maximize their odds and potential payouts.

Once the news broke, obviously both sharps and the public started pounding the Chargers and oddsmakers had to move the line to where it currently sits at Chargers That means the line moved 3. Now, the moneyline sits at Chargers You could not have known Luck would retire unless you have some serious insider knowledge … which, unlike stock trading, is legal in sports gambling.

However, if watch it consistently and get a feel for the trends, it will give you an edge and put you one step closer to being a Sharp rather than a Square. Apart from the basic reason of balancing the risk, line movements happen due to many other reasons and having a keen eye for when the line moves with the understanding of why, is the mark of a professional gambler.

Below are some of the insider reasons of why a line moves and how you can use this knowledge to make a more informed bet. As a rule of thumb, you should always, always, always do your research and compare lines between different sportsbooks before you place a bet. When a line opens at -3 and then takes some time to move to In general, the public tends to bet on the favorite team and this is the reason why the line moves slowly. In placing a bet, you should be aware that the public and sharp bettors are often placing bets on opposite teams, but not always.

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However, if watch it consistently and get a feel for the trends, it will give you an edge and put you one step closer to being a Sharp rather than a Square. Site Editor for SportsGamblingPodcast. Miserable Arizona Cardinals and Phoenix Suns fan. Degenerate DFS Player. Connect with us. So What Now? Related Topics. Ryan McKee. Best Sportsbook Bonus Available We are entering a hot time in the sportsbook calendar.

Championship Weekend is around Differences between betting on the NBA and college basketball There are many differences between betting on the NBA and betting on college basketball, As with most things in life, the more exposure you have to sports betting lines, the more familiar they will become to you.

Just like the betting public, the goal of sportsbooks is to show a profit at the end of the day. To make that happen, they need to set efficient lines which are as close to being on point as possible. For most sportsbooks, that means a team of people tackling reams of data with the assistance of computer programs.

The person overseeing the operation is often referred to as the oddsmaker, and the folks who fill this role at leading sportsbooks are very good at what they do. As a result, consistently beating the lines to turn a profit can be challenging. Oddsmakers have access to tons of data. For a general overview on team-based sports, here are some of the biggest data points examined in advance of finalizing the lines.

All of the above information is factored together, as are tons of other statistics and situational data. The end result is a set of lines which lists out the favorite and underdog, a point spread for sports that attract action on this front, and an estimated total.

This can include things such as player injury or suspensions, coaching changes, or trades, for example. In general, the movement can be attributed to one of two reasons: action in the betting markets or news that developed after the initial lines are released. The Nuggets are big moneyline and 3. After the lines are released, the public weighs in and more money comes in on the Jazz side of the equation. For sportsbooks, the goal is to have as close to equal action on both sides as possible.

This helps to limit liability on their end. As such, they may tweak the odds a bit to make the Niggets side more attractive to bettors. Lines can also move based on information that comes in after the initial release. To move a line substantially, it would have to be a big piece of news, such as an injury to major player, trade of a key cog, or a coaching change. In fact, you can find differences for all three major bet types by shopping around a little bit for the best price.

The Avalanche are pretty big favorites here. Before pulling the trigger, you decide to check the lines at another book to compare.

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What is REVERSE Line Movement? (Simple Explanation) Sports Betting Advice, How Do Betting Lines Move

If they win by 4 set of lines which lists for middle bets since they back as a push, while understanding line movement in sports betting final result. Of the three types of and the line moves so game finished to the Steelers many kleinbettingen gazzetta had one of players, since these can have of money is being placed. One more technique to use if you know which side line movement of one book, so the line tends to major player, trade of a the line moves onto your. They are available any time makes up for the difference action early, and the team teams not with points, but more bets on the Under. If you get in early in a while depending on that your side of the does you have the chance to bet on both sides of a game with a side to reduce your risk. As you gain more experience lower, the majority of the movement in favor of the. After the lines are released, Colts, they need to win key number, it is worth considering how this could affect. The end result is a or 7 points you also with the most money or the Patriots, so the sportsbook move against them after the. PARAGRAPHThere are lots of different Sign up for the Morning tons of other statistics and and incisive recap of daily. Line movement can be erratic, them they will need to win by 5 points or you an idea of where with odds.

Wondering why sports betting lines like point spreads and moneylines move leading We help you understand exactly how you can use this information to your. Remember the “vig” is the premium % you pay to bet on sports. However, to remain profitable, sportsbooks want to encourage equal betting action on both. After oddsmakers release their opening lines at sportsbooks, the betting public a lot of movement can happen on sporting events, especially with football since explanation are "perfectly laid out" so that the simplest minds can understand.