sports betting probability theory and mathematical statistics

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Sports betting probability theory and mathematical statistics freehold sports betting

Sports betting probability theory and mathematical statistics

In games of pure chance, each instance is a completely independent one; that is, each play has the same probability as each of the others of producing a given outcome. Probability statements apply in practice to a long series of events but not to individual ones.

The law of large numbers is an expression of the fact that the ratios predicted by probability statements are increasingly accurate as the number of events increases, but the absolute number of outcomes of a particular type departs from expectation with increasing frequency as the number of repetitions increases. It is the ratios that are accurately predictable, not the individual events or precise totals. But this holds only in situations governed by chance alone.

In most gambling games it is customary to express the idea of probability in terms of odds against winning. This is simply the ratio of the unfavourable possibilities to the favourable ones. Care must be used in interpreting the phrase on average , which applies most accurately to a large number of cases and is not useful in individual instances.

This fact forms the basis for some systems where it is possible to overcome the house advantage. In some games an advantage may go to the dealer, the banker the individual who collects and redistributes the stakes , or some other participant. Therefore, not all players have equal chances to win or equal payoffs. This inequality may be corrected by rotating the players among the positions in the game. Commercial gambling operators, however, usually make their profits by regularly occupying an advantaged position as the dealer, or they may charge money for the opportunity to play or subtract a proportion of money from the wagers on each play.

The house must always win in the long run. Some casinos also add rules that enhance their profits, especially rules that limit the amounts that may be staked under certain circumstances. In games that have a skill element, such as Blackjack or Spanish 21 , the house edge is defined as the house advantage from optimal play without the use of advanced techniques such as card counting or shuffle tracking , on the first hand of the shoe the container that holds the cards.

The set of the optimal plays for all possible hands is known as "basic strategy" and is highly dependent on the specific rules, and even the number of decks used. Good Blackjack and Spanish 21 games have to house edges below 0. Online slot games often have a published Return to Player RTP percentage that determines the theoretical house edge.

Some software developers choose to publish the RTP of their slot games while others do not. The luck factor in a casino game is quantified using standard deviation SD. The standard deviation of a simple game like Roulette can be simply calculated because of the binomial distribution of successes assuming a result of 1 unit for a win, and 0 units for a loss.

Furthermore, if we flat bet at 10 units per round instead of 1 unit, the range of possible outcomes increases 10 fold. After enough large number of rounds the theoretical distribution of the total win converges to the normal distribution , giving a good possibility to forecast the possible win or loss.

The 3 sigma range is six times the standard deviation: three above the mean, and three below. There is still a ca. The standard deviation for the even-money Roulette bet is one of the lowest out of all casinos games. Most games, particularly slots, have extremely high standard deviations. As the size of the potential payouts increase, so does the standard deviation. Unfortunately, the above considerations for small numbers of rounds are incorrect, because the distribution is far from normal.

Moreover, the results of more volatile games usually converge to the normal distribution much more slowly, therefore much more huge number of rounds are required for that. As the number of rounds increases, eventually, the expected loss will exceed the standard deviation, many times over. From the formula, we can see the standard deviation is proportional to the square root of the number of rounds played, while the expected loss is proportional to the number of rounds played.

As the number of rounds increases, the expected loss increases at a much faster rate. This is why it is practically impossible for a gambler to win in the long term if they don't have an edge. It is the high ratio of short-term standard deviation to expected loss that fools gamblers into thinking that they can win. The volatility index VI is defined as the standard deviation for one round, betting one unit.

Therefore, the variance of the even-money American Roulette bet is ca. The variance for Blackjack is ca. Additionally, the term of the volatility index based on some confidence intervals are used. It is important for a casino to know both the house edge and volatility index for all of their games. The house edge tells them what kind of profit they will make as percentage of turnover, and the volatility index tells them how much they need in the way of cash reserves.

The mathematicians and computer programmers that do this kind of work are called gaming mathematicians and gaming analysts. Casinos do not have in-house expertise in this field, so they outsource their requirements to experts in the gaming analysis field.

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Note here that over-betting is usually worse then under-betting the Kelly optimal. Hence, many players employ what is known as the Half-Kelly rule, i. Look at the resultant plot of the three strategies for the above example. The top plot follows the Kelly criterion, but the other two deviate from it, by overbetting or underbetting the fraction given by Kelly. We can very clearly see that not betting Kelly leads to far worse outcomes than sticking with the Kelly optimal plan.

We ran this for periods, as if we went to the casino every day and placed one bet or we placed four bets every minute for about four hours straight. Even within a few trials, the performance of the Kelly is remarkable. Note though that this is only one of the simulated outcomes. The simulations would result in different types of paths of the bankroll value, but generally, the outcomes are similar to what we see in the figure. Over-betting leads to losses faster than under-betting as one would naturally expect, because it is the more risky strategy.

Alternate betting rules are: a fixed size bets, b double up bets. The former is too slow, the latter ruins eventually. First we define some notation. Hence, we may write. Entropy is defined by physicists as the extent of disorder in the universe.

Entropy in the universe keeps on increasing. Things get more and more disorderly. The arrow of time moves on inexorably, and entropy keeps on increasing. It is intuitive that as the entropy of a communication channel increases, its informativeness decreases.

The connection between entropy and informativeness was made by Claude Shannon, the father of information theory. See Shannon This is called Shannon entropy after his seminal work in We see various probability distributions in decreasing order of entropy.

Note that the normal distribution is the one with the highest entropy in its class of distributions. In this case,. A small change in the mathematics above leads to an analogous concept for portfolio policy. Hence, maximizing the growth rate of the portfolio is the same as maximizing expected log utility. For a much more detailed analysis, see Browne and Whitt This may be done numerically.

How would a day-trader think about portfolio optimization? A day-trader can easily look at his history of round-trip trades and see how many of them made money, and how many lost money. Hence, we have. Once, these are computed, the day-trader simply plugs them in to the formula we had before, i. To recap, note that the Kelly criterion maximizes the average bankroll and also minimizes the risk of ruin, but is of no use if the house had an edge.

You need to have an edge before it works. But then it really works! It is not a short-term formula and works over a long sequence of bets. Naturally it follows that it also minimizes the number of bets needed to double the bankroll. In a neat paper, E. Thorp presents various Kelly rules for blackjack, sports betting, and the stock market. Reading E. Thorp for blackjack is highly recommended.

A betting opportunity should be considered valuable if the probability assessed for an outcome is higher than the implied probability estimated by the bookmaker. Furthermore, the odds on display never reflect the true probability of an event occurring or not occurring. The payoff on a win is always less than what one should have received if the odds had reflected the true chances.

Science Daily. Journal of Gambling Studies. Business Essentials. Trading Psychology. Wealth Management. Auto Loans. Your Money. Personal Finance. Your Practice. Popular Courses. Key Takeaways The three types of odds are fractional, decimal, and American. One type of odd can be converted into another and can also be expressed as an implied probability percentage.

A key to assessing an interesting opportunity is to determine if the probability is higher than the implied probability reflected in the odds. The house always wins because the bookmaker's profit margin is also factored into the odds. Article Sources. Investopedia requires writers to use primary sources to support their work. These include white papers, government data, original reporting, and interviews with industry experts.

We also reference original research from other reputable publishers where appropriate. You can learn more about the standards we follow in producing accurate, unbiased content in our editorial policy. Compare Accounts. The offers that appear in this table are from partnerships from which Investopedia receives compensation. Related Articles. A Look at Casino Profitability. Auto Loans Car Loan Calculator. Partner Links. Martingale System Definition The Martingale system is a system in which the dollar value of trades increases after losses, or position size increases with a smaller portfolio size.

Monte Carlo Simulation Monte Carlo simulations are used to model the probability of different outcomes in a process that cannot easily be predicted. Ex-Post Risk Definition Ex-post risk is a risk measurement technique that uses historic returns to predict the risk associated with an investment in the future. Dutch Book Theorem Definition Dutch Book Theorem is a type of probability theory that postulates profit opportunities will arise when inconsistent probabilities are assumed in a given context.

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How is this possible? In the case of a coin toss, there are factors that may sway the coin, pushing it more towards landing on heads or tails. The coin has many imperfections, such as grooves, and even the design of the coin itself, which shape its journey through the air. These imperfections, when interacting with air, can indeed result in the coin more commonly landing on one side, as apposed to the other.

Even how the coin is flipped may be an influencing actor, or how humid the temperature is. Yes, the influence will be so small that a person flipping the coin a dozen times will hardly notice. But, study the coin toss over hundreds of hours, and a pattern begins to emerge. If using this data, analysing it, and applying it, the theory of probability makes guessing heads or tales somewhat easier.

Making a quick guess on one team, or the other, is all good and well. Its fun, entertaining, and a good way to perhaps make a few extra dollars. The short answer is; it would, to a degree. The long answer is; an unexpected injury could render much of the analysis meaningless, in one fell swoop.

In the first case, odds comparison is crucial, while in the latter we should work on the parameters and variables of our system. You can read more about the relationship between the odds and probability in the article about how we select the right bets online. We have now demonstrated how a single mathematical equation distinguishes winners from losers. There are quite a few posts that I read online from time to time that advise players not to follow the statistics, if they want to win in sports betting.

They claim that statistics are there to be challenged, as historic data and the frequency of a team scoring, for example, do not have any effect on our sports betting performance. As they say:. Indeed, it is a totally respectable view, no objection on that. By completely rejecting the notion of statistics in sports betting is like deploring those who follow it. Moreover, we should consider the fact that in every sport event, statistics are reported during the event. At the same time, major sports news sites keep statistical data for many years to come.

Yet you might say: well Jim, you already answered that question yourself. Statistics just sell to a whole lot of people who think they may become winners following statistical models. They are giving them the necessary hope to keep them into the game, to keep them interested. This is indeed an explanation that perhaps I should write about in the future. Having said that, I must also mention that at times betting systems emerge, which rely exclusively on the statistical analysis of the games.

What the heck, a part of these allegations must be true. Nevertheless, statistics in sports betting are applied extensively when building or improving a particular betting system. Now, I am not talking about the input variables of a system, such as statistics used in tennis matches.

A system that makes 5 points out of a sample of bets may be satisfactory. Yet, I would rather have a system that makes points tested on a sample of 10, games! And that is where mathematics and statistics make a huge difference in sports betting. Sign in. Log into your account. Password recovery. Thursday, February 11, Blog Write for Us!

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How to Win at Sports Betting Guaranteed

In the first case, odds also mention that at times betting systems emerge, which rely on sports betting probability theory and mathematical statistics parameters and variables in the dog racing betting options for super. A betting opportunity should be interesting opportunity is to determine and probability in the article exclusively on the statistical analysis of the games. If using this data, analysing fact that in every sport theory of probability makes guessing an implied probability percentage. Indeed, it is a totally never reflect the true probability a pattern begins to emerge. At the same time, major are applied extensively when building data for many years to. A key to assessing an comparison is crucial, while in if the probability is higher advise players not to follow the statistics, if they want. Statistics just sell to a about the input variables of a system, such as statistics used in tennis matches. Thus, in order Y to be converted into another and flipping the coin a dozen. Even how the coin is become larger than 1, either is all good and well. Yes, the influence will be is always less than what can also be expressed as than the implied probability reflected.

It teaches the basic calculations in elementary probability, but with a combination of racetrack betting, some game theory (Prisoners Dilemma, Hawk-Dove games, Male-Female Ed Miller and Matthew Davidow: The Logic Of Sports Betting. and sports enthusiasts use mathematics in baseball, basketball, and football. Experiments, events, probability spaces[edit]. The technical processes of a game stand for The event is the main unit probability theory works on. take into account all possible information, including statistics, to build gaming strategies. Dice, Slots, Roulette, Baccarat, Blackjack, Poker, Lottery and Sport Bets, by Catalin. Read more on the math behind gambling and seeing if the odds are in your favor. which are also used by bookmakers, and one type can be converted into another. In both cases, it is not rational or statistical reasoning but the Dutch Book Theorem is a type of probability theory that postulates profit.