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|Icwr forex trading strategy review||In the example below we will show you only the part icwr forex trading strategy review is usually neglected by most of the trading strategies currently in use — how to find out the 8 est moment to exit the trade. Second read the extreme. The distance to our entry point is now around We will now give you an example that will show you why a trailing stop is not the best exit strategy. X represents Such a candlestick represents a highly volatile.|
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Use your favorite Moving Averages on the 4H. Be sure you know how to read candles. Making money in forex is easy once you fully understand the basics. I have discovered that simple indicators work better than complex systems and that the non-trade is more powerful than getting in too soon. Hello, a question about progressing the trade with each new wave. Lets say a new wave going long after a retracement to the Would appreciate clarification, thanks.
ICWR gets the larger moves because each new wave is significant. But why not just experiment and see if your results are better or worse by selecting new waves less than Dike June 1, , am 1. Hello honourable members! Happy New Year celebrations. Dike May 24, , pm 3. Dike May 24, , pm 5. The greatness of icwr lies in pin-point accuracy of entries and exits. When to exit a trade Our main. Second read the extreme. Ok, the Fibonacci level. First of all we place a stop order. For this active wave no exit signal.
New Fibonacci levels are drawn and. Again around on. Around the marke. Next thing to do is to. The wave 1 is now our current activ. This bearish signal must be confirm. Around we recognize a new act. When to enter a trade In short. The task is now to appl.
As both signals are bul. New Fibonacci levels a. The same day a little bit later a n. This bullish signal must be confirm. One school of thought is advocated by academic types, mostly economics, finance and mathematics professors. You should continue to work your little day job so that they have someone to make their sandwich or to change oil in their cars.
People who subscribe to this theory usually choose to stay out of financial markets and keep their cash stashed in their mattresses. Next day, when it turns out that they were totally wrong, they are telling you an entirely different story as if yesterday never happened. And if you noticed, the hosts never, ever bring that up. They have to show you that every day you are missing on countless trading opportunities; you just need to watch their shows, subscribe to fancy software that they sell you and you are on your way to early retirement.
The system that we are about to reveal to you is a fail proof entry and exit strategy that will put you on equal level with big investment firms and with experienced professional traders. However, there is one market that is still largely neglected by smaller traders even though it offers great profit potential and numerous trading opportunities. It is Forex or Foreign Exchange market. Why should you trade forex market Simply said, no other trading instrument comes even closely to forex market when it comes to liquidity, 24hr market environment and last but not the least, profit potential.
The busiest hours are early European mornings because at that time major Asian exchanges are still open and European afternoons because at that time major US markets are open at the same time as Europe. Therefore, wherever you live and whatever your work hours are you can always find 4 some time to participate in forex trading as opposed to stock market where you are usually limited to the regular business hours.
Another property of forex market that makes it an excellent trading instrument is use of leverage. However, a two percent move against you and your capital is completely wiped out. If you are a beginning trader you should not use more than margin until you get comfortable and profitable and then and only then you can attempt to use higher margins.
That means that you are betting that USD will depreciate against Euro. That would not have happened as our strategy has built in hard stops to prevent such outcome. And the third and equally important property of forex market is the fact that trends in forex market last longer and are more clearly defined than in any other trading instrument.
If you were attacked in a dark alley and you felt that your life was in real danger what kind of defence technique would you attempt to use. The goal of all the other traders in the market is to take your money. The strategy that we are about to reveal to you is a completely new, efficient and reliable trading strategy that comes as the result of years of forex market research using sophisticated mathematical methods and is based on a fundamental property of financial markets. The ICWR phenomenon Regardless of how strong a long-term market trend is, the market never moves only in the direction of the long-term trend — there are always minor movements against the longterm market trend.
The major market movements in the direction of the long-term market trend are called impulsive waves and the minor market movements against the long-term market trend are called corrective waves. The picture below Figure 1. Although the market shows both upward and downward market movements it can be easily recognized that the long-term market trend is clearly bearish as between AM 6 and AM the price failed around pips from 1.
The waves 1 , 3 and 5 are the impulsive waves; the waves 2 and 4 are the corrective ones. Figure 1. Our main observation, until now disregarded by all traders in their trading strategies, is that when putting into relationship the height of a corrective wave and the height of the prior impulsive wave, the corrective wave tends to retrace the prior impulsive wave in Fibonacci ratios.
For all kind of complex systems in nature as social, chemical or physical systems such selfsimilarity effects can be found. Self-similarity is a fundamental property of self-organized complex systems and is a matter of recent intense investigation by physicists and mathematicians.
We have used the phenomenon described above as a starting point to develop a completely original and until now unpublished trading strategy that combines basic principles of Elliot Wave theory together with well-known properties of Fibonacci ratios. The result is amazing, as you will soon find out. Simplified trading example Before going into the details of our strategy we will introduce it to you by showing you a simplified, shortened version and in the later chapters you will be shown how to put it to use and immediately start taking advantage of it.
Our strategy gives the best possible entry as well as exit moment. In the example below we will show you only the part that is usually neglected by most of the trading strategies currently in use — how to find out the 8 est moment to exit the trade.
For the purpose of making the example easier to follow we will assume that we have already found the best moment to enter the trade. And, why is this fundamental trading rule so important Because not letting the profits run will make your trading unprofitable in the long run: two losses of 50 pips followed by a win of 80 pips results in a net loss of 20 pips.
In contrast two losses of 50 pips followed by a win of pips, reachable with our strategy, results in a net win of pips! Note: All of the elements of the strategy are clearly explained in the later chapters. The purpose of the example below is to give you a glimpse into the exit part of the strategy.
For the first moment see Figure 1. At that point the market reached a value of 1. That means 48 pips in our direction. So far, so good. However, after the point B see Figure 1. What to do now Inexperienced trader would close the position as a scared rabbit, happy to take 10 even small profit from the trade. But this would be the wrong decision. So what do we do Figure 1. The essential question is: When do we decide that our trade has run out of steam and should be exited This is where our strategy comes into play.
In order to apply our trading strategy the following trading setup has to be done. First of all the highest and the lowest value of the downward movement are determined. For this purpose we draw a line connecting both extreme values. In our case the extreme values of the downward movement are point A around and point B around We will connect them with the thick blue line see Figure 1. Further on we draw the Fibonacci levels using the lowest value of the downward movement point B as the starting point level 0.
As we are only interested in the 0. We are going to exit the position only in the case that the price goes beyond the 0. The upward movement retraced at the 0. After point C the market moves again downwards in our direction until it reaches a low point around at the point D. After that the price starts to rise again see Figure 1. Nevertheless letting the profit run did pay off, as the distance to our entry point is already around pips at point B the distance was only around 50 pips.
Again the trading setup is done: a line is drawn connecting the extreme values C-D of the downward movement and based on this line the Fibonacci levels are drawn see Figure 1. And again: we are only going to exit the position if the price goes beyond the 0.
After point E the market moves again downwards in our direction until it reaches a low point around at the point F. After that, again the price starts to rise see Figure 1. The distance to our entry point is now around pips. Again we set our trading setup: a line is drawn connecting the extreme values E-F of the downward movement and based on this line the Fibonacci levels are drawn. Remember, we are only going to exit the position if the price goes beyond the 0.
After point G the market moves again downwards in our direction until it reaches a minimum around at the point H. Again we set our trading setup: a line is drawn connecting the extreme values G-H of the downward movement and based on this line the Fibonacci levels are drawn. After point I the market moves again 15 downwards in our direction till it reaches a minimum around at the point J. Again we set our trading setup: a line is drawn connecting the extreme values I-J of the downward movement and based on this line the Fibonacci levels are drawn.
Exit signal occurs if the price breaks the 0. After the market trend starts to turn bullish. As of the price has gone beyond the 0. Using a leverage of it means a profit of 10, x 0. That means a profit of 4, USD after one trading day! As you can see from the Figure 1. In order to show you how efficient our strategy actually is, we will compare the result we achieved with the result we would have achieved if we had used a trailing stop instead.
As you can observe from the Figure 1. If we would have used a trailing stop to exit the trade we would have achieved a profit of only 90 pips and our trade would have finished too early. Instead, using our strategy a profit of pips — almost three times more — is achieved! Some of the technical language that is included may be new to some of our readers.
However the understanding of this chapter is not necessary for the successful implementation of our strategy which is fully explained in the latter chapters. Basically the system that we were after had to have following properties: Simplicity, Efficiency and Consistency. Simplicity As we all know forex trading strategies are becoming more and more complex and sophisticated.
What does it mean for our average independent trader It means that our simplicity factor when developing a trading strategy gains in importance. What usage could an average person make from a strategy that requires or presumes a profound knowledge in mathematics at a PhD level and a computing power beyond that of the newest personal home computer A type of highly complex strategies commonly used by 19 investment companies are neural networks 1.
A neural network is, in short, a model of interconnected neurons also known as nodes that is inspired by the logical neurons in human nerve system. Like the human brain a neural network can acquire, store and utilize experiential knowledge in order to improve its performance day by day. Regrettably, to consistently use a strategy based on neural networks one requires the complex knowledge of how to feed a neural network with history data as well as excessively high computing power not affordable to our average forex trader.
Efficiency Efficiency of a trading strategy is basically a measure of profit that is realized using the strategy during specified period of time. When comparing different trading strategies, those strategies that show more profit during specified period of time are said to be more efficient. Consistency Once we have found a system that is efficient and simple to use our next most important selection criteria becomes consistency.
What does it mean for a strategy to be consistent It means that when the financial market behaviour changes slightly or even drastically, as often happens in times of political and financial crisis, the strategy is still able to make profit. It means that a strategy with high efficiency and high consistency is a much better and safer strategy than a strategy with high efficiency but lower consistency. It is the consistency of a strategy that permits traders to plan for capital draw downs and potential profit build up.
A consistent strategy shows the following properties: 1 V. This can be simulated changing slightly the parameters of the strategy. We had to put a lot of effort and time into forex market research to come to this conclusion. In the following we want to give you only a short look into our long way to our strategy.
First of all we will show you some of the milestones of the strategy development. That is how to define reliable and consistent market signals based on the ICWR phenomenon see chapter 2. Finally we will give you some remarks regarding the high consistency see chapter 2.
The open points were the following: 1. To find out the proper Fibonacci levels to be used. As you can imagine there exist really a lot of possibilities of defining rules for generating signals based on the ICWR phenomenon. Such an unusual behaviour is for example a candlestick being greater 3 times or more than its immediate neighbours. That means that there is a huge difference between the highest and the lowest value of that period.
Such a candlestick represents a highly volatile time period. Ok, suppose that the rule for recognizing a bullish signal in the case of an upward movement is the recognition of the price bouncing off any Fibonacci level 0. After the upward movement starting at and ending at we could following the former simple rule make around following market reading: around we see the price clearly above the Fibonacci levels after having bounced off at the 0.
But such a bullish signal makes no sense, as such an isolated and highly volatile candlestick has nothing to do with the impact of the ICWR phenomenon into the market. Another factor that we had to take into account is a sideways market, which can very easily generate false signals. Ok, suppose the used rule for recognizing a bearish signal in the case of an downward movement is again the recognition of the price bouncing off any Fibonacci level 0.
After the downward movement starting at and ending at we could following the supposed simple rule make around the following market reading: the price is below the 0. However it would make no sense, as such a sideways market has again nothing to do with the impact of the ICWR phenomenon into the market..
Because of that, the main effort had to be put into finding efficient and at the same time reliable rules that is immune to the other effects of the market for generating market signals based on the ICWR phenomenon. You will find these rules to be defined in detail in the chapter 3. For the sake of completeness let us just remark that in the shown examples Figures 2. In the example with the high volatile candlestick at in Figure 2.
First, because the whole candlestick is not above the upper confirmation level 0. And second, no retracement channel is entered; even if the whole candlestick at was above the 0. Not only a false bullish signal is avoided, but also later the ICWR Trading Rules generate a correct bearish signal corresponding to the real market trend. The proper long-term filter When developing a trading strategy, it makes sense to search for a proper long-term indicator in order to filter out the entry signals from the short-term scale.
The reason is that such long-term filters make the strategy considerably more powerful meaning more efficient and more consistent. In our case the short-term time period for intraday trading is five minutes candlestick and for long-term trading time period is four hours candlestick. Why do long-term filters make a strategy more efficient The reason is quite simple. Suppose we are doing intraday trading. As we want to let our profits run, we are going to stay in the market typically for a couple of hours and sometimes even for a couple of days.
Basically long-term filters are filtering out those entry signals that are not in the concordance with the long-term market behaviour. Enhancing the Intraday Strategy In order to enhance the intraday strategy based on the ICWR phenomenon the following TA indicators and rules were tested: MA x : The period simple moving average from the x-period candlestick chart is used.
The long-term signal is bullish if the actual value of the moving average is above the actual price. The long-term signal is bearish if the actual value of the moving average is below the actual price. X represents 30 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 1 day. For example MA 1h stays for the period simple moving average from a one hour candlestick chart. X represents 30 26 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours and 1 day. The long-term signal is bearish if the actual value of the CCI is below 0. The long-term signal is bullish if the actual value of the CCI is above The long-term signal is bearish if the actual value of the CCI is below In the Figure 2.
The red thick line represents the result of the trading without a long-term filter around pips of net profit. The average is calculated based on two years historical back-testing. As you can observe from the red line shown on the Figure 2. The red thick line represents the result of our strategy without a long-term filter around pips of net profit.
Again, as in the intraday trading the ICWR strategy is already highly profitable however when combined with long term filters it becomes even more profitable. Consistency checks Earlier in this chapter we have mentioned how important it is for a strategy to be consistent. In the long run it is the consistency of a strategy more than its efficiency that will make you successful in the trading business. Showing you all the analysis done in order for us being able to make this statement would go clearly beyond the scope of this chapter, as we would be forced to bore you with pages and pages full of complicated statistical stuff.
As this is not relevant for your trading we decided to show you only an extract from our analysis. That is the graphs showing that our strategy is immune to small changes in the given parameters — which simulates a slight change in the forex market behaviour. As you can see from the Figures shown below Figures 2. Why is our entry strategy so profitable If you look at the entry signals that our strategy produces in Figure 2.
This enables us to catch up a long-term intra-day wave after entering the market and therefore pick up a considerable number of pips. Instead, if you look at the entry signals that would for example have been generated by a commonly used entry strategy, that is the crossing of the period moving average with the 5-period moving average, one recognizes that a lot of the entry signals generated by MA crossings are of really poor quality, as they are not able to predict what will be the main market trend see Figure 2.
Exit strategy is equally if not more important than entry. In majority of strategies that are used by average traders a trailing stop is used. A trailing stop is definitely better than a hard stop, however our strategy goes way beyond regular trailing stops when determining the place of exit.
Before we go on, for the ones not knowing the meaning of a trailing stop, we will show you what a trailing stop is and how it works. A trailing stop order with a moving rate of 30 pips works as follows: suppose you are entering long a position at the closing price of 1. Using the above defined exit strategy you will then put your stop order at 1.
If the next closing price is at least 30 pips greater than the last stop order, the new stop order will be the new closing price minus 30 pips. For example at AM the closing price of 1. Because of that the new trailing stop is set to be 1.
Also at AM the closing price of 1. The new trailing stop is set to 35 e 1. In this example the position is exited at , because the low of that period of 1. And why does an exit strategy using a trailing stop work against this rule Because very often such a strategy fails unnecessarily, it gets you out just at the moment when your trade needed just a little more space…Why Every market trend, regardless of how strong it is, also shows movements against the long-term market trend.
We will now give you an example that will show you why a trailing stop is not the best exit strategy. That means according to the rules of a trailing stop, the new stop order is placed pips below. That means at 1. The total profit of the trade using the pips trailing stop was 1.
Although we exited the position with profit pips , we lost the chance of picking up the amount of pips that were possible in that trade. How much profit was actually possible in that trade As we will show you explicitly in chapter 7 we made in this trade a profit of pips, when using our exit trading rules. In Figure 2. Using a simple trailing stop is not only a pity for the lost pips pips , but it is making trading in the long run unprofitable: two losses of pips followed by a win of pips result in net loss of pips.
In contrast two losses of pips followed by a win of pips result in a net win of pips! Do you get the point 38 Figure 2. Basically the greater the profit spread is the more pips we can risk, in order to gain even more. Again, one should not forget, that not every position will make profit and in order not only to come even with the losses but also to make considerable profit, one needs to milk every possible cent out of every profitable trade.
This is where our strategy comes into play. We understand that this chapter was complicated and maybe sometimes a little bit boring; however we had made it as short and concise as possible. If we had included all of the tests and calculations that were needed to produce the ICWR strategy we would had needed at least several hundred pages… In the next chapter you will be shown every aspect of ICWR strategy that you need to know in order to be able to implement it successfully.
Thank you for your patience. Which software and which trading platform you will be using is entirely up to you, however our setup will give you a general idea of what capabilities should your software have. Trading the currency that you are familiar with has lots of advantages vs.
For example, a person who lives in Canada remembers approximate range of CAD vs. USD during past ten years or more and has much better understanding of those currencies than average person from Japan. Principles and rules that are explained in this strategy can be used to trade any of the above currencies. Market signals generated by ICWR Before starting to apply the Intraday ICWR Trading Rules, the first thing to do is to recognize from the candlestick chart the actual candidate for being an impulsive or a corrective wave.
This candidate we will call from now on the active wave. How to recognize the active wave from the candlestick chart is shown in chapter 3. Based on these rules our strategy generates bullish or bearish signals that can be used for entering as well as exiting the trade either on a long or a short side. Recognition of the active wave The active wave is the nearest market movement to the actual time of our trading with a height greater than 40 pips.
In order to find the active wave from the candlestick chart the following steps are to be done: First identify all possible upward and downward waves that seem to be close to or greater than 40 pips on the candlestick chart as shown in Figure 3. Then draw the waves, connecting the extreme values of the starting and the ending point as shown in Figure 3.
If the wave goes downwards we are going to connect the high value of the starting point with the low value of the ending point. Else if the wave goes upwards we are going to connect the low value of the starting point with the high value of the ending point. Figure 3. Enumerate the waves starting with the nearest wave to the actual time as shown in Figure 3. Please notice that the actual time is always at the right of the candlestick chart.
Afterwards read the extreme values of each wave and calculate its height. In this example it is the wave 1. This is now the active wave see Figure 3. If none of the waves has a height greater than 40 pips you have to go further in the past until the active wave is found. As the time goes on a new movement with a height greater than 40 pips will occur. In that case the previous active wave gets inactive, and we get the new active wave see Figure 3. We will draw only the 0.
The level 0. The Fibonacci levels start at the ending points of the wave. In the example below you would subtract the low value from the high value 1. You would then use the following formulas to get the Fibonacci levels. The retracement channel is the channel between the upper and the lower retracement levels: Figure 3. They are only drawn for confirming that the Fibonacci levels are drawn properly.
First we will concentrate only on the retracement channel. We wait until the retracement channel is triggered. Only then we can use the confirmation levels. The retracement channel is triggered when the closing price of a candlestick is inside of the retracement channel.
Once the retracement channel is entered we will forget about it and concentrate only on the confirmation levels. The following four cases are now possible: Case 1. According to the chapter 1 the impulsive waves go in the direction of the market trend.
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