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The second order effect is that it causes asset valuations to significantly increase. This creates a paradigm supporting asset price inflation as opposed to real economic inflation. One unintended consequence of this is that it becomes very challenging to use valuation as a meaningful tool to make investment decisions. Another unintended consequence is a widening of the wealth gap which contributes to the risk of social and political instability, which will ultimately impact risk premia and, hence, future investment returns.
As a defined benefit pension plan, our primary investment objective is plan sustainability. This means earning the return we need to keep our plan fully funded at the lowest risk possible, while keeping contributions and benefits stable.
A sustained environment of low or negative rates makes it very challenging to earn the return we require to ensure sustainability and forces some difficult decisions. As a minimum, it calls into question the validity of continuing to hold bonds in our portfolio. Most pension funds and institutional investors hold a sizable portion of their portfolios in nominal government bonds. It becomes exceedingly challenging to justify holding nominal government bonds as part of an investment program when yields are near zero or negative.
Not only do they lose their ability to generate any meaningful return over the long-run, but more importantly, they no longer provide diversification benefits as there is very little room for their yields to go lower and their prices to go higher when equity markets are under pressure. Furthermore, the usefulness of having bonds in our portfolio as a liability hedging asset is reduced as they no longer can deliver sufficient cash flows to match our pension obligations in the long-term.
As policy makers continue to fight the deflation threat and fiscal policy begins to play a bigger role, inflation expectations will begin to move higher and assets will begin to reprice. We should see this in steeper yield curves, to the extent that central banks will not stifle the price discovery mechanism of markets through yield curve control.
Assets that do well in this kind of environment will be desirable, such as real estate, infrastructure and certain commodities and equities. Notably absent from this list is nominal government bonds. I see the investment environment over the next three decades being quite different from the three decades that I spent much of my career in. Since , the pension fund has opened two offices outside of Canada — one in London, England and the other in Sydney, Australia.
For both locations, hiring local talent is a big part of achieving their objectives. However, not every pension plan has the ability to establish offices around the world. Even plans with significant scale and billions to spend boast only a handful of foreign outposts. What edge does a physical presence offer a pension fund and what should they consider when looking at setting up shop abroad? The screens are helpful, but I think.
You can pick up on tone moreso. Pension funds outside of Canada are also diversifying their positions geographically. Last year, Colombia, Japan, Malaysia, South Korea and Taiwan saw the biggest growth in allocations to these foreign assets, with Colombia boosted by loosened legislation on foreign asset ownership. Company culture is also an essential part of an adequate analysis, he says. When it comes to investing in a company, a survey of its employees can be a useful tool, but following that up with a visit to the organization can add to the power of that investigation.
In addition to company culture, there are often cultural reasons why a certain company conducts business the way it does, says Marc Cevey, chief executive officer of HSBC Global Asset Management Canada Ltd. Consumers spend money differently in various economies and consumption is increasingly becoming the single largest driver of economic activity. So that is the biggest engine of economic activity and, therefore, understanding consumer patterns and preferences in those individual countries is critical to understanding the potential return on asset.
Outside of private equities, other real assets, such as infrastructure and real estate, highlight the importance of a physical presence, helping pension funds analyze a potential acquisition in a myriad of ways. So for us, we know that we need to have New Yorkers in New York, right? You need to have Parisians in Paris and Singaporeans in Singapore. To get a scale for just how different one street corner can be from another in the same city, Peck suggests investors consider their home town and its intricacies in value from neighbourhood to neighbourhood.
On a global real estate perspective, that remains the case. They are very specific to each of the countries depending on your country of residence, depending on a whole bunch of things. Indeed, local tax laws are one of countless logistical considerations for investors. Another area is compliance, as pension funds could easily find themselves on the wrong end of a regulation in another country, says Peck.
Familiarity with the politics of a particular country can also give an investor an edge, says Masom.
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