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Oleh sebab itu kita masih boleh trade lagi setup seperti ini ,namun ingin di ingatkan bahawa ia masih lagi tetap berisiko. Pada saya gabungan ini lebih berpotensi jarak jauh.. D1 H4 sama sama buat MHV.. MHV ni apa? You are commenting using your WordPress. You are commenting using your Google account. You are commenting using your Twitter account. You are commenting using your Facebook account.
Notify me of new comments via email. Notify me of new posts via email. Takde kan.. Share this: Twitter Facebook. Like this: Like Loading You think I just keep getting lucky, punks? Do you have any idea how unlikely that is? And a 5-sigma event is to be expected every 3,, days, or about 1 day every 13, years. I just got lucky, right? You should buy after a 5-sigma move, right?
That's what fuckstick says: "Big sigma moves happen all the time in markets, more than any other field where we collect and analyze historical data, because markets are social beasts subject to "wild randomness" that is not found in the physical sciences. This was the primary lesson of Nassim Taleb's book The Black Swan, written before the financial crisis that found Wall Street bankers completely ignorant of randomness and the risks of ruin.
How many of you dumbasses did the same thing? Nomura: Market staring into the abyss "The plunge in US equities yesterday 12 March pushed weekly returns down to 7. In statistical science, the odds of a greater-than seven-sigma event of this kind are astronomical to the point of being comical about one such event every billion years.
Or, you can ask your personal finance advisor about it. OTM out-of-the-money Put Spreads are a great way to get some bullish exposure to a rally in the SPY while also shorting such rich volatility levels. Y'all bought this one too, admit it. Still think that was just luck, punk? You know how many sigmas that was? Over 12 god-damn sigmas. I'd have a much better chance of guessing everyone's buttcoin private key, in a row, on the first try. That's how unlikely that is. A bailout for shitty funds and market makers like Trump's handjob buddy Kenny Griffin from Citadel.
Why do you think Jamie Dimon had a heart attack in early March? He saw all the dogshit that everyone put on his books. And every single TQQQ put expiration would have had to be paid. Tens or hundreds of billions on TQQQ puts alone. If they go through with this, this was probably the bottom. Just like I have no way of knowing when the Fed decides to do a bailout. But you react to that, when you see it. Do you think "Oh no world's ending" and go sell everything?
No, dumbass, you try to figure out what Billy's doing. And in this case it was pretty obvious, Billy saw the Fed train coming and wanted to close his shorts. So you give the dude a hand, quick short in and out, and position for Billy dumping his short bags. So we made the decision to exit.
So how could I catch that? Because it wasn't random, yo. And I'm here to teach your asses how to try to spot such potential moves. But first, the technical bootcamp. You never FOMO into buying too fast. The play's never going to work if you do that, because you give the market maker free delta, and he's going to hedge that against you. If you all fomo in at once into the same strike, the market maker algos will just pull the asks higher.
You just gave him free downside insurance, so of course he's going to start going long. And you just traded against yourself, congrats. Don't step on each other's toes. You put in an order, and you wait for it to fill for a couple of seconds. And you keep doing that a few times. Move your strikes, if needed. Only get a partial fill or don't get a fill at all?
You cancel your bid. Don't fucking leave it hanging there, or you're going to put a floor on the price. Let the mm algos chill out and go again later. Algos are especially active at x, x, x, x, x and x Try not to buy at those times.
RULE 3. Don't just roll with Robinhood, you're just gimping yourself. But for cheap faggy puts or calls , Robinhood is the best. If you want to make a play for which the other side would think "That's free money! Because Citadel will snag that free money shit like no other. Seriously, if you don't have a RH account, open one. It's great for making meme plays. Doesn't matter how big or small your bankroll is. If you go all-in, you're just gambling, and the odds are stacked against you.
You need to have extra cash to manage your positions. Which leads to RULE 5. Good job! And again. Snowball those gains. RULE 6A. This is not as valid for calls. Long explanation why, but the gist of it is this: you know how calls have unlimited upside while puts have limited upside? RULE 6B. Do you close the position, take your loss porn and post it on wsb? Again and again. You don't manage losing positions by closing. That removes your gainz when the market turns around.
You ever close a position, just to have it turn out it would have been a winner afterwards? Yeah, don't do that. You manage it by opening other positions. Got puts? Buy calls. Got calls? Buy puts. Turn positions into spreads. Buy spreads. Buy the VIX. Sell the VIX. They wanna pin for OPEX? Sell them options. Not enough bankroll to sell naked? Sell spreads. Make them fight you for your money, motherfuckers, don't just give it away for free. When you trade, YOU have the advantage of choosing when and where to engage.
The market can only react. Starts losing? You pound it. Unfortunately expired worthless but also goes to show I'm not selling you puts, dickwads Then the autists show up: "Hahaha you lost all your money nice job you fucking idiot why do you even live?
Sell them some calls or puts or spreads. Still wanna pin? You play that as well. At least make some money back, if not profit. Hmm, 3 day weekend, well you should expect either a shitty theta-burn or maybe the pajama traders will try to pooomp that shite on the low volume. Well make your play.
I bet on the shitty theta burn, but could be the other, idk, so make a small play. A double-or-nothing basically. Well, today comes around and futures are pumping. Up to 3, now. Do you just roll over? You think I'm gonna sit and take it up the ass? Nah bros that's not how you trade, you fucking fight them. Well then I buy back 1 of the calls. Did that shit yesterday when futures were a little over , around ish. But now what do I have? In fact, the harder they pump it, the more I make.
If they wanna run it up, at it's break-even. Over that, it's profit. I'll sell them some bear call spreads over if they run it there too. They gonna dump it? They wanna do a shitty pin at today? Well then I'll sell them some theta there. Later edit: that was written yesterday. Not bad. And that, my dudes, is how you manage a position. You don't do it with Robinhood, because it's a shitty dumpsterfire of a broker.
But you don't do it with other brokers either. Pull that shit out. Preferably to a bank that doesn't play in the markets either, use a credit union or some shit. Because you're giving the market free liquidity. Free margin loans.
Squeeze that shit out, make them work for it. That's starting to move the needle. You wanna make a play, use instant deposits. And that way you don't lose your shit when your crappy ass broker or bank gets its ass blown up on derivative trades. Do you think SPX will be at by the end of the month? Well, this section is for you! Let's clear up the misconception that stonks only go up while Fed brrrs.
Think by the end of the year? Doesn't matter, you can plug in your own variables. Or did you drop out in 5th grade? Doesn't matter if not, I'll teach you. That is, SPX goes up on average 0. In fact, some legit fucks are seriously predicting SPX by September. Compounded Leverage. And that's just the ones I managed to tally, there's a lot of dogshit small ones on top of that. And this is just for TQQQ.
And the market would have to lose each respective amount of cash into these leveraged funds. Think the market can do that? You can play around with your own variables. But understand that this is just a small part of the whole picture, many other factors go into this. It's a way to put a simple upper limit on an assumption, to check if it's reasonable. And on top of this, you have a whole pile of leveraged derivatives on top of these leveraged things.
And these leveraged ETFs are flawed instruments in the first place. It didn't matter when they started out. For the banks providing the swaps, for the market providing the futures contracts, whatever counter-party to whatever instrument they would use, that was fine. Because it balanced out. Bank was happy, in the long run things would even out. Slippage and spreads and fees would make them money. But then something happened.
Stonks only went up. And leveraged ETFs got bigger and more and more popular. And the same goes for all the other ETFs. And it matters a whole fucking lot. And that, in turn, forces the banks providing the swaps to either eat shit with massive losses, or go out and hedge.
Probably a mix of both. But it doesn't matter if the banks are hedged, someone else is on the other side of those hedges anyway. Someone's eating a loss. Can think of it as "The Market", in general, eating the loss. And there's only so much loss the market can eat before it craps itself.
You know the future prices after all But no, you couldn't. There isn't enough money out there to pay you. So you'd move the markets by blowing them up. Ya think I pulled this one out of my ass too? Yes you can time it. Flows, motherfucker, flows. Money flow moves everything. Can't even call it dumb flow, because it literally doesn't think. Because it's passive. Option settlement flows. Once options expire, money is going to flow from one side to another, and that my friends is accurately predictable from the data.
Spot the flow, and you get an edge. The market was so quiet in that period, that is was possible to precisely figure out where it ended up. Why the dump after? The next morning, after market opens the Q comes out. And that Q contains a very important nugget of information: the latest number of outstanding shares.
But AAPL buybacks are regular as fuck. You can predict the outstanding shares before the market gets the Q. And that gives you EDGE. Well sit the fuck down, I have news for you. First bit of news, you're dumb as shit. When the latest number comes out, the market cap changes instantly. And ETFs start moving, and hedges start being changed, and so on. FLOWS change. I even marked interesting dates for you with vertical lines. Wrong again. When everything moves like that, it means the market needs CASH.
Companies drawing massive revolvers? Just understand what this flow means. Gold showed it to you as well.
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