Speaking in UKIP's Royton headquarters, Nigel Farage told journalists: "If this was taking place today in one of dozens of other constituencies in the north of England we would have won it comfortably. Asked on where he he was referring to Asians voters as this "block vote", he said: "I'm going to say nothing because otherwise you'll all scream at me.
She told me: "People aren't speaking about Corbyn, they are speaking about Labour and have almost airbrushed him. A Local fishmonger tells me there's been some excitement around the election because of Nigel Farage's visit this week and the national media attention. Douglas Carswell, the Ukip MP for Clacton, has been wheeled out in Oldham to brave the cold and persuade floating voters. Asa Bennett and Laurence Dodds analyse recent polling and what it could mean if Labour lost.
Jeremy Corbyn faces his first electoral test since becoming leader as voters go to the polls for the Oldham West and Royton by-election triggered by the death of much-loved Labour MP Michael Meacher. Meacher won the seat in May with 14, more votes than Ukip's candidate — a majority which should be unassailable. But as Corbyn faces week after week of negative headlines, Labour insiders fear it could be dramatically slashed.
A private party poll last week suggested it could drop by half , while shadow chancellor John McDonnell this week seemed to be preparing for a majority of less than 1, If that happened — of if, somehow, they lost the seat entirely — disgruntled Labour MPs who have so far stayed their hands might begin seriously thinking about a coup.
First, a health warning. By-election results can offer signs of trouble ahead, but they are famously poor predictors of general election results. This is partly because the composition of the electorate is different, and partly because their special, one-off nature makes voters do unusual things. So as any pollster worth her salt will tell you, you can't just take a by-election result and generalise it across the entire country.
However, given the Labour party leadership is currently touting online polls comprising a couple thousand of their supporters as evidence of public opinion, we thought: why not do it anyway? We consulted the political forecasting firm Electoral Calculus to generate some fantasy Oldham results, and then used their handy custom swing generator to sketch out what would happen if these results were replicated on the national scale.
The Conservatives increase their majority in Parliament from 12 to , with Labour losing a shocking 46 seats. In real life, it's fairly unlikely that all the votes would pass to Ukip in this way. But it's impossible to predict where the votes would go without simply plucking a figure from thin air.
So think of this as a thought experiment, a piece of political fantasy designed to probe the boundaries of just how bad things could get for the Labour party. And make no mistake, this is bad. Oldham West has been a stalwart Labour seat since its creation, so losing even this much of their majority would give Labour an electoral bloody nose.
Here's what happens if half Labour's majority goes to Ukip. Remember, this is the kind of drop in support some polls are actually predicting. This is a disaster for Labour. It's Jeremy Corbyn's equivalent of Waterloo — only without the preceding ten years where he wins any battles at all. It's the party's worst vote share since Such a national swing would be catastrophic, leaving the Conservatives with MPs, which would easily dwarf Labour's strong cohort.
So let's imagine what could happen if the swing to Ukip was so bad that Labour actually lost the seat. If the last graph was Waterloo, this is War of the Worlds. Sure, Nigel Farage doesn't actually get to stomp around in a three-legged robot harvesting people's blood. Again, it's obviously unlikely that every single voter who deserted Labour instead fled to Ukip. But if we split the vote loss between Ukip and the Conservatives, things actually get worse for the Left:.
Total Tory domination. But hey, at least Labour are bigger than Ukip — even though Ukip have received twice as many votes an argument for PR? Like we said earlier, none of this will actually happen. We're having, as Peter Snow would say when playing with his swingometer, " just a bit of fun ". The real picture will be much more complicated and probably somewhat milder.
But it does make clear just how big an earthquake it would be for Labour to lose votes in Oldham, let alone for them to lose the seat entirely. Even a much smaller tremor than any considered here would signal serious trouble ahead. Summary of the key developments. Interactive: Oldham West and Royton by-election results.
How the day unfolded. Simon Danczuk: A far-Left candidate would have lost the election for Labour. Ukip consider police complaint over voter irregularities. Interactive: Predicted seats based on Oldham West and Royton by-election swing. Ukip 'scarper off' from Oldham. Ukip's Suzanne Evans: 'We're bad losers'. Labour's victory celebrations. Jeremy Corbyn's victory speech in Oldham. Tom Watson denies he wants to oust Jeremy Corbyn as leader amid fresh call for unity.
Ukip cancels press conference. But who should happen to be on the same time - none other than the Chancellor, George Osborne! Tom Watson: Nigel Farage has 'sour grapes'. Ukip plunged into chaos as party backtracks on Nigel Farage's 'bent' claim. Jeremy Corbyn passes his first electoral test. McMahon dismisses Ukip's accusations of irregularity. Michael Meacher was "watching over" me.
He said the "postal vote has distorted the result" of the election and ensured Labour have won "You've got to ask yourself, is this Britain or is this Harare? Evidence from an impeccable source that today's postal voting was bent. Are Labour celebrating already? Meanwhile, Jim McMahon is going down well at the count: Jim McMahon receives huge around of applause as he arrives at the count Oldham pic.
Sir Oink-a-lot and his comrades. Monster Raving Looneys roll into the count. They added: "Seriously it's like Pyongyang here. Labour's votes are weighty. Jonathan Ashworth, a Labour frontbencher, tells Newsnight: "Ukip did well at the general election. Labour: "We have been playing down expectations". Not in Oldham, admits Ukip There are "no hard feelings" that Douglas Carswell is not in Oldham on polling day for its crucial by-election, reports Laura Hughes: A Ukip spokesperson has just confirmed Carswell hasn't been here, but insisted there were no hard feelings The count begins.
Polls close in two minutes Polls close in 35 minutes. Could the wet weather prompt a washout at the polling booths for Ukip? It doesn't seem to be putting off the Labour canvassers: Never ceases to amaze me how incredible labourstudents are.
Email james. Nigel Farage isn't too confident about the postal votes, Laura Hughes reports. Ukip embroiled in 'White Christmas' row. But he added that he wouldn't be voting as "all politicians are the same. Jeremy Corbyn's first electoral test. The mood in Oldham this afternoon. Campaign takes to the streets. Asa Bennett and Laurence Dodds analyse recent polling and what it could mean if Labour lost Jeremy Corbyn faces his first electoral test since becoming leader as voters go to the polls for the Oldham West and Royton by-election triggered by the death of much-loved Labour MP Michael Meacher.
So how bad could it get? Interactive: Oldham West - As it stands. Interactive: Oldham West - If Labour lost quarter majority. Interactive: Oldham West - Labour lost half its majority. Interactive: Oldham West - If Labour lost its whole majority. Interactive: Oldham West - If gains are split. Voters go to the polls. Michael Meacher's death sparked by-election. George Osborne congratulates Jeremy Corbyn He said the "postal vote has distorted the result" of the election and ensured Labour have won.
On the other hand, the stronger Conservative poll ratings could actually help Labour because the Tory vote may not totally collapse to the extent that it has in previous by elections in Greater Manchester. A good point. Most of the abstentions will be Labour voters. Most people who vote Labour here do so because they are Labour supporters.
An fair bit of noise coming in off the media, spectator picking up on that reddit labour door knocker and running with it. Will the old labour worry about bad weather have any impact? The main benefactor appearing to be the Conservatives. How many Labour MPs came to Oldham today on the grounds that the by-election is more important than abstaining on the vote about Trident?
So both commissioners and the pollsters themselves might be a bit reluctant to go ahead with this type of polls. Perhaps it will become so if there is more talk of Labour struggling, but to be honest the media have loads of stuff to keep them busy at the moment without trekking up to Oldham!
There was a UKPR contributing who predicted this with startling accuracy. Or people changed their minds late on. I guess that happens a lot in by-elections with a big swing. I cannot find what you are talking about. The closest thing are the locals. If so t. Apparently I have more time to do that than look it up myself. The closest I found was a mention of the locals. Which might be difficult to find. This is a really useful website, the fact it allows you to export to excel allows you to delete data which is irrelevant to you.
Also the fact you can see population density on this level is quite cool. But using locals for an insight into a by-election result is for the most part a wasted exercise. Do we have a breakdown on how many people have got postal votes or, regrettably, proxy votes by party allegiance and by ehtnic group? The best predictor at this point is how people who have already voted say they have voted.
The political parites probably know this; but as I understand it they are not allowed to tell us. Given that the result in this seat is likely to be close, the agents are likely to wish to keep a careful eye out for votes cast illegally.. The postal votes began to be sent out a week ago. It would be interesting to know whether any of the returned ballot papers have yet been verified.
Yes- postal votes important factor. But Oldham west Royton postal vote figure of was average. Compare this with at Sunderland Central and in Sherwood. In Eastleigh all the parties agreed that UKIP had won the most votes on election day itself and that the LDs won because they had a big lead with postal votes. There maybe some evidence to suggest that where there is a massive uptake of postal votes PV , it is detrimental to high ballot box turnouts. This is surely due in large part to only 23, being returned.
It is a bit odd: people going to the effort of requesting a postal vote and then not returning it. Makes you wonder why they would do that. NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.
You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Name required. Mail will not be published required. Polling Blog. Latest Voting Intention. Europe Scotland Polltroll, Polltroll,. Cardiff Central Polltroll,.
Boundary Commission ENG. Boundary Commission NI. Boundary Commission SCO. Electoral Calculus. Local Authority By-elections. Richard Kimber's Archive. Copyright Anthony Wells The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and in no way reflect the views of YouGov plc. Part of Oldham council area. Main population centres: Oldham, Chadderton, Royton.
Former local government officer. Oldham councillor since , Leader of Oldham council Awarded the OBE in for services to Oldham. Petrol station entrepreneur. Oldham councillor for Labour. Contested Oldham West and Royton November 23rd, at pm. November 24th, at am. Are there any local factors which could influence the result? If that happens then UKIP will get very close or win. Imagine a general election result: Party A….. But more of A abstain. Ratio 3 to 1.
|Most played us sports betting||Some 7, out of 27, votes cast were postal ballots. Cardiff Central Polltroll. Liberal Democrat. Advanced swingometer. A private party poll last week suggested it could drop by halfwhile shadow chancellor John McDonnell this week seemed to be preparing for a majority of less than 1, Labour: "We have been playing down expectations". So how bad could it get?|
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|Oldham west and royton by election betting||Spread betting hedging strategies for stocks|
|How to earn bitcoins android watches||On the night, Labour won by nearly 11, votes. The main benefactor appearing to be the Conservatives. Then happened. By-election results can offer signs of trouble ahead, but they are famously poor predictors of general election results. But to increase our share of the vote since the General Election is a vote of confidence in our party. She told me: "People aren't speaking about Corbyn, they are speaking about Labour and have almost airbrushed him.|
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