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We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settingsotherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue. Privacy Policy. Home Search In. Previous Fields Gender Female. Profile Information Location southampton hampshire. Gutted im going to miss this one sounds like a great place to go, next year I will make sure i book my holiday round the gp dates.

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Political betting odds eastleigh uk

She said: "William is very gifted which gives us another interesting challenge in finding the right sort of education for him - impossible in the state system. Meanwhile, comments by Labour candidate, John O'Farrell, made in a book in have come back to haunt him. Former Conservative chairman, Lord Tebbit , and his wife were injured in the blast.

He voiced his anger at the comments to the Daily Mail on Saturday. He said: " Ed Miliband should repudiate this incontinently voiced moral reprobate who tries to excuse murder as a weapon against those who won democratic elections time after time against the rag-bag remnants of a once great Labour Party,". The company's spokesman, Graeme Sharpe said: "Despite being perceived as unlikely to retain the seat when the by-election was announced, the Lib Dems have been the best backed Party and if the odds are to be believed are heading for a morale-boosting win which will strike a blow to the Tories hopes of a majority win at the next General Election.

The by-election was sparked by the shock resignation of Chris Huhne when he pleaded guilty to perverting the course of justice earlier this month. Get top stories and blog posts emailed to me each day. Newsletters may offer personalized content or advertisements. Polls close at 10 pm and the results will be announced in the early hours of Friday morning. Coronavirus Eastleigh Bowling alley re-opening scrapped after rise in covid cases.

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The Lib Dems, who dominate the borough council, have a super-slick machine. They are confident they'll hang on to Chris Huhne's former seat. Labour's John O'Farrell was out campaigning near the town centre and was lunching in the very nice Artisan cafe on High Street.

Ukip candidate Diane James continues to glad-hand voters on Market Street. I'm not going to give an absolute commitment that you are talking to the first Ukip MP because that's for the voters to decide. They believe turn-out is good, which is good for them — the bigger parties are likely to do better on postal votes so there is catching up to be done.

One strategist said they had phoned everyone who had said they would vote for them once; they were planning to do it once more later. That's not happening this time. Alison Smith, the Oxford politics lecturer who led complaints of sexual harassment against Lord Rennard, has contacted the Metropolitan police about her allegations and has urged other victims to do the same. Robert Booth has the full story here. It feels like a case of musical chairs and he is the only one standing when the music stopped.

So many people have questions to answer. Smith made her complaint under the leadership of Menzies Campbell and she said Rennard exerted extraordinary power over the Lib Dem leadership and that may have made it harder for them to tackle the issue. Asked if that may have informed the limited way in which Clegg and his then chief of staff, Danny Alexander, handled the allegations in , she said: "He [Rennard] has been instrumental in making and breaking Clegg's career so far. A slightly gentler way of dealing with unwanted campaign literature than the ones we saw earlier:.

That leaflet fatigue I mentioned yesterday mike4eastleigh twitter. Just a reminder of how the main parties lined up at the general election. Here's a quick round-up of bookies' odds on the Eastleigh byelection. As we enter last few days of the Eastleigh campaign, local voters are really loving all the attention. The 'A' Team is on it : twitter. Updated at 2. Poor Nick Clegg has been forced perhaps by self-appointed detectives to continue the running commentary on the Lord Rennard allegations that he wanted to avoid.

The Lib Dem leader, visiting the Aston Martin car factory in Warwickshire, told reporters that he wanted the investigations into Rennard's alleged behaviour carried out "as quickly as possible". The key thing, not least for the women involved, is that the investigations get their work done as quickly as possible.

The important thing is that the two investigations I announced last week are allowed to get on with their work, and that the police investigation is allowed to get on with its work. Martin argues:. Excoriating Tony Blair is easy. But in the end it is both scurrilous and stupid. He got some things wrong and a lot of things right. To pretend that he was and is essentially beyond the pale turns politics into grandstanding.

It makes the political dilemmas which face any centre-left leader into a permanent self-fulfilling narrative of failure and betrayal. Telegraph and New Statesman journalist Dan Hodges is taking a stand against byelection-day cliches:. Is there any chance we could come up with a description of activity at polling stations that is not a "Brisk" or b "Sluggish"?

I'm happy to report turn-out in Eastleigh is officially "serene" or "sensual". Mike Smithson, who runs the PoliticalBetting website, has some good news for Ukip. Here's David Cameron on the EU's plans to cap bankers' bonuses. The prime minister said:. Britain wants to have effective bank regulation.

One of the failures under the last government was the failure of having effective bank regulation. We are absolutely clear that we must be able to implement the Vickers plan in the UK, which in some ways is tougher than regulations that are being put in place in other European countries. We want to have this proper ringfence between retail banks and investment banks, and the rules must allow that to happen We have major international banks that are based in the UK but have branches and activities all over all the world.

We need to make sure that legislation put in place in Brussels is flexible enough to allow those banks to continue competing and succeeding while being located in the UK. Updated at 1. Like UK Polling Report , pollsters Survation have analysed and summarised the five polls taken during the Eastleigh campaign.

He writes:. This has enabled them to bring a larger number of activists to the campaign and to reach more voters in more ways than the other parties have been able to. He also claims the expected large number of postal votes favours the Lib Dems, and dismisses the idea that the Chris Huhne or Lord Rennard controversies will damage the party:. He adds:. Ukip are within touching distance of second place, and with reports from Eastleigh suggesting their ground game has been surprisingly organised, it is conceivable that they will pass at least one of the two main parties by polling day … [and] the possibility that they could pull off a surprise outside victory, as George Galloway did in Bradford West a year ago, should not be entirely discounted.

The polls will stay open until 10pm, and the result is expected before 2am tomorrow. I'll be covering the count on a separate live blog which will launch this evening. The proposal was agreed at an EU meeting last night. David Cameron said the government would look carefully at what had been agreed before deciding what action to take at next week's meeting of EU finance ministers.

But Britain cannot veto the plan as the issue is subject to qualified majority voting. See I'm handing over to my colleague Paul Owen now. He will be writing this blog for the rest of the day. Updated at In the UK we don't have Nate Silver to tell us who's going to win an election. But, I learnt today because he contacted me on Twitter , we've got Chris Prosser, an Oxford University politics lecturer who has developed a statistical model for trying to predict byelection results.

He claims it works quite well ie, it produces the right result for past byelections and he has used it to try and call Eastleigh. Here are the share of the vote figures his model produces. Ukip aren't included because there is not enough Ukip byelection polling data to feed into the model which illustrates one problem with this kind of number crunching. At the very least, though, they provide a yardstick by which we can measure the outcome of the Eastleigh vote.

You can read his post in full at Politics in Spires. You can read all today's Guardian politics stories here. And all the politics stories published yesterday, including some in today's paper, are here. As for the rest of the papers, here's the PoliticsHome list of top 10 must-reads, here's the ConservativeHome round-up of today's political stories and here's the New Statesman list of top 10 comment articles.

Plunged into this saga by the serial fibbing of their philandering ex-MP, Chris Huhne, many are clearly relishing the chance to give the entire political class a poke in the eye. The unnamed man — wearing a pink dressing gown — had earlier climbed on to a flat roof to throw eggs and potatoes at the Loony Party leader, canvassing below his window. But this absurd scene was no more farcical than much of this by-election campaign. If they can hold a constituency where the former sitting MP faces jail, they might be able to retain their seats at the next election.

When Osborne seeks his support, Clegg would have more power to tell his party to continue taking the medicine and hope to deliver many more Eastleighs. Cameron and Osborne need time and some stability in the Coalition if they are to have any hope of winning an election. Time and stability for the Coalition are secured if the Lib Dems win today.

For Labour, such a result would also be encouraging. A Lib Dem victory in Eastleigh makes a Labour win at the next election more likely. Here's an extract from his blog post. Our literature in the campaign has been very old school. It's focused on Europe, immigration, welfare and opposition to new housing developments.

Our popular local candidate, Maria Hutchings, is almost a UKIP candidate with, for example, her support for leaving the EU and her opposition to gay marriage. She is certainly something of a test case for the idea that you beat UKIP with a more Ukippy message and more Ukippy candidates. I wish her luck today. She'd make a good MP for local people. Is the best way to counter UKIP to run the sort of tougher-edged campaign we are running in Eastleigh or do we simply need to say that every voter has a choice - Cameron or Miliband and any vote for Farage will let Miliband in by the back door?

In a by-election, of course, the latter argument has much less resonance. In a general election you aren't protesting, you are voting for a government. Here's what the Telegraph's Benedict Brogan is saying about Eastleigh in his morning briefing email. David Davis 's sally last night will be taken as ominous in No To those of you who think there's nothing much to report from Eastleigh today, I have some news.

Half of Eastleigh has lost power again: Specsavers, Market St in darkness. Will ppl see where to put their 'X'??? Boris Johnson , the London mayor, has launched a very strong attack on the EU decision to cap bankers' bonuses. People will wonder why we stay in the EU if it persists in such transparently self-defeating policies. Brussels cannot control the global market for banking talent.

Brussels cannot set pay for bankers around the world. The most this measure can hope to achieve is a boost for Zurich and Singapore and New York at the expense of a struggling EU. This is possibly the most deluded measure to come from Europe since Diocletian tried to fix the price of groceries across the Roman Empire. The BBC is running a special byelection results programme tonight, starting at But it won't feature Alastair Campbell. In fact was asked but can't do.

According to the Telegraph, he would not say that he had confidence in Nick Clegg's handling of the affair although I can't really see why he should need to have confidence in Clegg's handling of the matter, which is an internal Lib Dem party affair and nothing to do with Clegg's ministerial responsibilities. Net migration into Britain has fallen by a third, according to fresh figures released today as the number of immigrants arriving in the country dropped "significantly".

The decline was driven by a drop in the number of immigrants coming to Britain, which fell from , to ,, while the number of migrants leaving the country rose from , to , Here's the ONS news release. And here's the statistical bulletin with the full details pdf. Last night John O'Farrell , the Labour candidate in Eastleigh, wrote a post on his blog trying to explain why, although election campaigns can be "maddening", they do matter.

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Let's see how they actually do in Eastleigh. Doubt it translates. John Prescott has called the Tories' use of Ukip colours on an election leaflet "desperate" and "remarkable". Tory leaflet using UKIP colours to get votes! Getty Images have filed some brilliantly prosaic photos of Eastleigh, which remind me of postcards of British cities from the s. Mike Smithson, who runs the PoliticalBetting website, has got the latest probability figures on who is likely to win, based on bookmakers' odds.

The figures at 9am today were Lib Dems The 4. Updated at 4. My colleague Steven Morris has noticed something interesting about the latest Conservative campaign leaflet: it looks like a Ukip campaign leaflet. Latest Tory leaflet in eastleigh.

In UKIP colours. Interesting tactic. My colleague Steven Morris reports a febrile atmosphere in Eastleigh town centre:. The first person I found talking politics after touching down in the Swan shopping centre car park was Lee Mead, year-old salesman.

He was talking to a Ukip campaigner, Ann Murray, who had come here all the way from Dornoch in the Scottish Highlands. Mead says he's not racist — he's got a girlfriend from Latvia and Asian friends. We can't keep on letting everyone in. He believes that if the coalition announced a referendum on the EU today people would flock to the polling stations.

Marsh claimed he was getting a good response, too. That's why Ukip is doing so well here. They are benefiting from anger against the mainstream parties. Eastleigh is an old railway town, the centre ringed by terraced streets of workers' cottages. The party's candidate, Daz Proctor, is actually out of the area, in the north-west of England taking part in a protest against the so-called bedroom tax.

Marsh says Proctor will be back later — and the party will be back come the next set of local elections to take on the main parties again. Campaigners for the National Health Action party are also trying to secure last-minute voters. This battle has been a steep learning curve for Green's party. It is planning to field 50 candidates at the next general election. There is not much evidence of the Lib Dems and the Tories in the town centre, Steven reports; they are out in the suburbs, getting their voters out.

The Lib Dems, who dominate the borough council, have a super-slick machine. They are confident they'll hang on to Chris Huhne's former seat. Labour's John O'Farrell was out campaigning near the town centre and was lunching in the very nice Artisan cafe on High Street. Ukip candidate Diane James continues to glad-hand voters on Market Street. I'm not going to give an absolute commitment that you are talking to the first Ukip MP because that's for the voters to decide.

They believe turn-out is good, which is good for them — the bigger parties are likely to do better on postal votes so there is catching up to be done. One strategist said they had phoned everyone who had said they would vote for them once; they were planning to do it once more later. That's not happening this time. Alison Smith, the Oxford politics lecturer who led complaints of sexual harassment against Lord Rennard, has contacted the Metropolitan police about her allegations and has urged other victims to do the same.

Robert Booth has the full story here. It feels like a case of musical chairs and he is the only one standing when the music stopped. So many people have questions to answer. Smith made her complaint under the leadership of Menzies Campbell and she said Rennard exerted extraordinary power over the Lib Dem leadership and that may have made it harder for them to tackle the issue.

Asked if that may have informed the limited way in which Clegg and his then chief of staff, Danny Alexander, handled the allegations in , she said: "He [Rennard] has been instrumental in making and breaking Clegg's career so far. A slightly gentler way of dealing with unwanted campaign literature than the ones we saw earlier:.

That leaflet fatigue I mentioned yesterday mike4eastleigh twitter. Just a reminder of how the main parties lined up at the general election. Here's a quick round-up of bookies' odds on the Eastleigh byelection. As we enter last few days of the Eastleigh campaign, local voters are really loving all the attention.

The 'A' Team is on it : twitter. Updated at 2. Poor Nick Clegg has been forced perhaps by self-appointed detectives to continue the running commentary on the Lord Rennard allegations that he wanted to avoid. The Lib Dem leader, visiting the Aston Martin car factory in Warwickshire, told reporters that he wanted the investigations into Rennard's alleged behaviour carried out "as quickly as possible".

The key thing, not least for the women involved, is that the investigations get their work done as quickly as possible. The important thing is that the two investigations I announced last week are allowed to get on with their work, and that the police investigation is allowed to get on with its work. Martin argues:. Excoriating Tony Blair is easy. But in the end it is both scurrilous and stupid. He got some things wrong and a lot of things right. To pretend that he was and is essentially beyond the pale turns politics into grandstanding.

It makes the political dilemmas which face any centre-left leader into a permanent self-fulfilling narrative of failure and betrayal. Telegraph and New Statesman journalist Dan Hodges is taking a stand against byelection-day cliches:. Is there any chance we could come up with a description of activity at polling stations that is not a "Brisk" or b "Sluggish"?

I'm happy to report turn-out in Eastleigh is officially "serene" or "sensual". Mike Smithson, who runs the PoliticalBetting website, has some good news for Ukip. Here's David Cameron on the EU's plans to cap bankers' bonuses. The prime minister said:. Britain wants to have effective bank regulation. One of the failures under the last government was the failure of having effective bank regulation.

We are absolutely clear that we must be able to implement the Vickers plan in the UK, which in some ways is tougher than regulations that are being put in place in other European countries. We want to have this proper ringfence between retail banks and investment banks, and the rules must allow that to happen We have major international banks that are based in the UK but have branches and activities all over all the world.

We need to make sure that legislation put in place in Brussels is flexible enough to allow those banks to continue competing and succeeding while being located in the UK. Updated at 1. Like UK Polling Report , pollsters Survation have analysed and summarised the five polls taken during the Eastleigh campaign.

He writes:. This has enabled them to bring a larger number of activists to the campaign and to reach more voters in more ways than the other parties have been able to. He also claims the expected large number of postal votes favours the Lib Dems, and dismisses the idea that the Chris Huhne or Lord Rennard controversies will damage the party:.

He adds:. Ukip are within touching distance of second place, and with reports from Eastleigh suggesting their ground game has been surprisingly organised, it is conceivable that they will pass at least one of the two main parties by polling day … [and] the possibility that they could pull off a surprise outside victory, as George Galloway did in Bradford West a year ago, should not be entirely discounted.

The polls will stay open until 10pm, and the result is expected before 2am tomorrow. I'll be covering the count on a separate live blog which will launch this evening. The proposal was agreed at an EU meeting last night. David Cameron said the government would look carefully at what had been agreed before deciding what action to take at next week's meeting of EU finance ministers.

But Britain cannot veto the plan as the issue is subject to qualified majority voting. See I'm handing over to my colleague Paul Owen now. He will be writing this blog for the rest of the day. Updated at In the UK we don't have Nate Silver to tell us who's going to win an election. But, I learnt today because he contacted me on Twitter , we've got Chris Prosser, an Oxford University politics lecturer who has developed a statistical model for trying to predict byelection results.

He claims it works quite well ie, it produces the right result for past byelections and he has used it to try and call Eastleigh. Here are the share of the vote figures his model produces. Ukip aren't included because there is not enough Ukip byelection polling data to feed into the model which illustrates one problem with this kind of number crunching.

At the very least, though, they provide a yardstick by which we can measure the outcome of the Eastleigh vote. You can read his post in full at Politics in Spires. You can read all today's Guardian politics stories here. And all the politics stories published yesterday, including some in today's paper, are here.

As for the rest of the papers, here's the PoliticsHome list of top 10 must-reads, here's the ConservativeHome round-up of today's political stories and here's the New Statesman list of top 10 comment articles. Plunged into this saga by the serial fibbing of their philandering ex-MP, Chris Huhne, many are clearly relishing the chance to give the entire political class a poke in the eye. The unnamed man — wearing a pink dressing gown — had earlier climbed on to a flat roof to throw eggs and potatoes at the Loony Party leader, canvassing below his window.

But this absurd scene was no more farcical than much of this by-election campaign. If they can hold a constituency where the former sitting MP faces jail, they might be able to retain their seats at the next election. When Osborne seeks his support, Clegg would have more power to tell his party to continue taking the medicine and hope to deliver many more Eastleighs.

Cameron and Osborne need time and some stability in the Coalition if they are to have any hope of winning an election. Time and stability for the Coalition are secured if the Lib Dems win today. For Labour, such a result would also be encouraging.

A Lib Dem victory in Eastleigh makes a Labour win at the next election more likely. Here's an extract from his blog post. So, we mostly agree with Rob about where the safest and most vulnerable seats are. Looking at his list of possible surprise Liberal Democrat gains, we agree on Montgomeryshire and Watford as being the top two prospects, but the betting has a few above his third choice of St Albans:.

You can find all of our betting on every single UK constituency here. Mike Smithson thinks that the Liberal Democrats can win back Montgomeryshire from the Tories and tipped it to his army of readers yesterday. According to our odds on every seat in Britain , here are their Top Ten chances.

Click here for all of our latest general election odds. Fancy trying to predict exactly how many seats the Liberal Democrats will win next May? Ladbrokes have now issued some odds on their exact total. Constituency profile courtesy of ukpollingreport. Pretty amazing.

Perhaps the SNP should be even shorter. If you take a look at electionforecast. I would advise anyone to have a good look at the FAQs on their site before committing too much money on the basis of their forecasts. Predicting Scottish seats is incredibly tricky at the moment. The basic problem is how much can you anchor forecasts to the results, or do we just accept that the world of Scottish politics has totally changed and start from scratch?

The first major hurdle for him to clear is getting into parliament. The Lib Dems did a great job of getting within votes of winning the seat in , making it the second biggest Lab-LD swing in the country. Perhaps a few years down the line though; after all Clegg was only an MP for two years before he became leader although he already had a reasonably high profile as a former MEP. That follows last night YouGov poll which put the Greens ahead.

How many candidates will they stand? In , the Greens stood in just UK constituencies i. This time they are reported to be aiming for three quarters, which would be something around Will they fade away in the campaign? If the current TV debate proposals go ahead, then Nick Clegg will be in two of the three debates. Everybody wants to back the Liberal Democrats to do badly at the general election.

Their seat number line has dropped from

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This will be in addition to the elections for the devolved parliaments in Scotland and Wales. The pandemic meant that no elections took place last May and none of the hundred of local council vacancies have been filled because by-elections have been covered as well.

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Each red block in the chart represents the view of a GOP Senator with yellow indicating position unknown. The Blue blocks are Democrats. At the…. Events which utterly dominated government policy and public discourse can be forgotten in a matter of years.