betting model

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Betting model

Research Data. Track Odds. My Account Log Out. Log In Tools Products. Log In. Betting Models Player Propsheet Gamesheet. Fantasy Weekly Rankings. Betting Stats Game Odds. Advanced Betting Models Identify Market Inefficiencies Introducing a revolutionized way to predict sport betting outcomes. MLB Betting Models. As a result, there is value in this market in finding the instances where the true result differs greatly from the spread.

These points of value often come from betting against popular or trendy picks, as the market or the bettors tend to overreact to recent performance, as well as big-name players. If there are unequal amounts of money on each side leading up to the game, the casino will adjust the spread throughout the week. This means there are certain points in the week where it is more advantageous to bet on a certain team. In addition, there are also times when the casino fails to move the spread even with unequal amounts of money on both sides.

This means that the casino is essentially placing a bet that the side the public bets more on will lose. It is important to identify the times when a casino is placing a bet in order to bet on the same side as the casino.

The goal of this project is to create a betting model that provides a statistical basis for choosing the timing, team and amount to bet on a certain game. To do this, I first create a model to forecast the spread throughout the week, as to determine when exactly in the week is the most advantageous point to bet. Treating the spread as a time series object is a good method to achieve this goal.

Using this probability and the fact that a bettor must bet 11 units to win 10 units, I generate an expected value for betting on each team. In order to have a positive expected value to bet on a game, the probability point estimate must be greater than In addition, the forecasted spreads helps determine whether it would be more advantageous to wait to bet on the game.

Finally, after generating expected value for all the games, I simulate how my models perform using a variety of different betting strategies. I examine the distribution of winnings for each betting strategy after running the simulations numerous times. Each betting strategy has different rules and parameters that determine the stake and timing of each bet.

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Elite Sports Betting starts with the right mindset and understanding sports betting market. Sports betting odds are nothing else than probabilities turned into the numbers. These numbers are the prices that bookmakers offer and that you will pay. Sports betting models are betting systems based on analytics and help us to find Value bets.

Building a complex sports betting model can be a very tough task for an average sports bettor. I am passionate about math, statistics and even more how to build a simple sports betting model, based on probabilistic method, that will have a profitable results.

Sports betting models that I have created helped sports bettors all over the World. Sports Betting Model is a betting system , that helps you to find a positive expected value value bet in games that other bettors may not. This system will help you to estimate the probability for all outcomes in a certain game and then making unbiased betting selections, which are the key for success. I started betting in and since then I am part of Sports Betting World.

I bet for myself, I create my own betting models in spreadsheets and I constantly try to improve. I was lucky, because my father was a professor of math and he showed me the love for the numbers. This helped me later to understand sports betting from different perspective. At the same time I was not only betting for myself, but I was involved in sports betting communities, forums and since then I am asking myself, why so many people lose and why they can not even understand the basics of sports betting.

Because once you understand that sports betting is has almost nothing to do with sports alone, but more with the numbers and how you find positive expected value then your betting experience changes forever. I was studying Water Science And Environmental Engineering, where I upgraded my knowledge about statistics and created my fist models in spreadsheets. Later I used this knowledge and started created my own sports betting models, that are based on probabilistic methods.

I decided to help sports bettors to change their old bad betting habits and start looking at betting through numbers. By the way I finally watched all videos from your course. Last one is brutal!!!! Great information!!!!!! Way to Go MB…. I tried many betting services that ripped me off and crowdsourcing picks that was still just based on luck. All resulted in losses. Not just the betting model, but the brutal honesty and uplifting motivation.

MB is not a hustler, he promises nothing except the truth and promotes discipline, hard work and knowledge. This is for everyone. Just starting out with small bankroll or professional gambler looking to refine his or her process. Amazing value for money and easy to follow video instructions on how to build complex betting models anyone can understand!

You opened my eyes about the world of sports betting and now i look different about everything! I want to thank you for all your work and effort you putted in those videos and those formulas! I am impressed with the entire content, and indeed every word is justified by the facts and by a mathematical formula.

Definitely everyone must to buy A Journey if he deals with betting because it is worth every penny and I can not wait for upcoming updates. Thanks again for all your efforts that you invested in the site and in A Journey and share it all with us.

I am up 36 points with my MLB bets. This is even better than my teacher! Before I found you I made some stupids bets like Barcelona win 1. It didnt worked out for me. And after I read the articles and saw your videos. After getting your Journey Package last year, I decided to start Twitter page as well, where i post my soccer selection for free.

So that other People, like I was, wont get scammed by these scammy Tipsters. His knowledge and numbers on the topic are crazy! He takes a strategical, analytical and investing approaches that are usually found in the financial world.

Hi MB, I just want to thank you for everything you are doing. I really appreciate the effort you are putting in and also the likemindedness. Your organic approach to development is priceless and I am really happy I joined a year ago! I am looking forward to allocating more time to study the content available to us and to practice it daily! Thanks again! I learned more from you in 1 week then I learned in 3 years of college.

It is amazing service and a great website. MB is professional and I can say with confidence this man is successful sports bettor. I have been with the underdogchance team for over 2 years I reckon, and in all this time I can surely say that I will be with them till the end. Members section is a bettors gem.

Proud to have stumbled upon MB. Great job! Yes you can win at sports betting , but before we go little bit deeper with this topic, please forget everything you know about betting — just for a moment. There is not much helpful information available on this topic anyway. Albert Einstein once said… insanity is doing the same things over and over again and expecting different results.

If you try hard and you still lose in sports betting, you are probably doing something wrong. Maybe it is now the time to change your betting method and learn something new. Sports is one thing. Sports Betting is another thing.

Profitable Sports Betting is completely different thing from both. I constantly get emails from followers, who want to bet specific sport, because they watch the sport, because they love the sport and they think because of that they will make a profit. If profitable sports betting would be correlated to the love for sport, then all professional coaches, fans and players would be the best sports handicappers.

Imaging Tom Brady or Leo Messi as the best sports handicappers. I know it sounds crazy, but believe me most bettors mix those three tings in the same context, while in reality are three different things. And understanding this is so important, that we can not move forward if this is not clear. To explain the difference between Sport, Sports Betting and Profitable Sports Betting, we must understand how betting companies make money. Most sports bettors think, that betting sites, make money because someone bet on his favourite team and this team lose the game.

This is not exactly how this works and this is definitely not their business model. In decimal odds we see 1. And that difference is the margin vig, vigorish, juice,… as we like to call. And once they have betting advantage, the only thing they need is the liquidity and patience.

The patience is easy. So, the question was how to create a good liquidity and where to find a lot of people where majority of them will not use any sports betting analytics, but will still be betting a lot of money every day.

Sport is a perfect pool of people and information for bookmakers. Games are every day. Watching is fun. People can win short term and get the feeling what winning in sports betting looks like. Some examples are esports betting , politics betting , maybe once in the future reality show betting,… anything where you can attract a lot of people, who are willing to watch games and bet.

When we have the sport and a lot of people, who are willing to bet on these events, then we also know that they will watch these games. The first problem is how our brains work and the dopamine that is released when we bet and watch games.

Excitement is much much bigger when there is a combination of watching games and betting. Many sports bettors will say, they watch games, because they know better what to bet. But what is watching games basically? It is collecting the data. And the problem is that most bettors think they can collect the data and correctly analyse it by watching games. It is a mistake and sports is just a sport. It is used as a pool of information and people, who are willing to bet.

The question should not be, what sport you love, but what sport you can analyse, find positive expected value and finally how to make money in sports betting. If you start researching Sports Betting Guide, you will find tons of advice how to place a bet, what are the odds, where to bet,… but most of these information are completely useless when it comes to profitable sports betting.

Answers on these questions will not make you a winning sports bettor. Answers will make you a sports bettor, noting more. In other words, you will know how to place a bet. Making a sports bet is easy. Millions of people bet every day and they are sports bettors.

But they are not necessary sports bettors that make money and definitely not profitable sports bettors who will have a positive lifetime betting balance. Profitable sports betting is investing with the intention to make a profit. The odds are the prices that you will be paying and if you will pay bad price you can not win. It is not about love for the sport, it is not about how many times you watch games, it is not about how long have you played some sport, but exclusively about placing yourself in a position, where you can make rational bet decisions.

Professional Sports Bettors will never involve emotions with the sport they love. In fact in most cases it is much much better to separate business from fun. When it comes to betting for money, the main focus is profit. When I started betting in , I quickly realised, that sports betting has nothing to do with the sport, but only how skilled you are in predictions against betting market.

So the next step was how to create a method, that will exploit value bets. And this is how my betting journey started. I loved soccer football and I still love to watch and play. But I decided that I will research whole market and will try to find a sport, where I am not emotionally involved and where I can use sports betting analytics. For me baseball betting was ideal.

But it was a perfect match for me. Winning bettors know exactly when to bet, what to bet and when to stay away from betting on games. They also know how much to bet and what to do with betting profits. They completely separate sports betting from watching sports and love for the sports. The basic concept of making money, not only in sports betting, but in general is to find the value. The value can be described as a difference between two numbers.

The first number will be always offered by sports betting market the odds. The second number you must find out. And the difference is what we call a value bet. Imagine that you want to make a profit by selling a Beer in your restaurant. What do you need to do? You need to buy a beer for the price A and sell it for the price B. And B minus A must be positive in your favour. And I believe that we all agree that if you will buy a beer for lower price and later sell it for bigger, you can expect a profit.

This is the simple concept of making money and this should be the starting point here too. In the picture above we can see the odds from Pinnacle and the odds of 2. This price can change during the day and the biggest question is what is the right price to bet? Is this price good? Betting odds are basically probabilities of the outcomes turned into the numbers. This must be clear.

Every single game or betting event has 2 or more possible outcomes. All these words are used just for marketing purposes. These numbers or probabilities are simply estimations of the chances of one team versus other team or one outcome versus another outcome. After bookmakers include their margins juice, vig , this price is little bit lower.

So instead of 2. This price can later raise or fall, depend on different factors, which includes action of sports bettors and involved money. And our goal is to estimate our price independently from bookmakers, because only by comparing projected odds estimated price with the bookmakers odds will give you the answer on value bet.

And this is exactly Number A minus number B, which is the basic concept of making money. This can not be estimated properly in any humans brains or by intuition — at least not on bets. This can not be estimated in our head and this can not be estimated by watching games or just reading news. Winning betting theory is pretty simple, despite I see that most bettors simply ignore these rules. Ignoring or not understanding the theory will not help you on your sports betting journey.

Here are 5 simple rules of profitable sports betting and how they are correlated to my sports betting models. I hope that we all agree now, that the odds are probabilities turned into the numbers and they represent the prices on betting market. So, the first step before you make a bet is to estimate your own probabilities, independently from bookmakers, because you must have an idea what is the price you are willing to pay.

Once you have your estimated probabilities, you can simply turn them into your own odds, which is basically the price that can be compared with bookmakers odds. It is basically your price vs bookmakers price. Example of my comparison of my estimated odds and bookmakers odds from my CSGO betting model:.

After you compare your odds with the bookmakers odds, you must look for the discrepancy between the numbers. If your predictive analytics in sports betting is good, then you can exploit possible bets.

This is what we call a value bet. This is your Number A — Number B. Sports betting is always a log game. Majority of sports gamblers will bet until they lose everything. Winning in short period of time is even more dangerous, because it can give you a false illusion, that you have the advantage against sports betting market, where in fact you were just lucky. This is why profitable sports betting is always a long game. And this is how you should set your plan and the game.

Always bet only small percentage of your bankroll, because this is a game of percentages and no matter how good you are you will face losing streaks. Winning streaks are easy to handle — everyone can do it. But the difference is made in losing streaks. Only the best can survive them. Always track your bets, because this is the only way to see if your betting makes sense. All professional sports bettors track their bets from different angles and from different perspective.

I use my betting spreadsheet, where I track all important info about the game, profit, w-l record, yield, ROI, closing line value, p-value, opening odds versus closing odds,… But what is most important I can see how my betting model perform.

I see a lot of sports bettors who come to me and ask me questions about how to start betting with the numbers, which is great because I see that more and more people see how important this is. With the internet and all the information, there is no excuse anymore to not understand how profitable betting works. How were other bettors in my situation jumping to the next level? I knew there was more than just understanding gambling probabilities, betting margins, sports betting market,….

I soon realised that in order to make money long term, I need to be better than the competition. And this competition are not just bookmakers, but also other sports bettors. Sports betting is always a relative competition against this huge betting market. So, I knew I had to be better than the rest. Betting guides that we find on the internet are in most cases useless, because they are targeting SEO ranking in sports betting World, instead of targeting real and quality questions and answers.

So, the next step was to create betting models, that will work and then the dirty job. Test, improve and put a lot of effort. Sports Handicappers who make their bets without projecting the odds before they place a wager are just guessing wit their imperfect betting software — their brains and emotions.

Reading news, watching games, looking at betting trends,… this is just one way how to collect the data. But if you can not collect correctly the data and analyse it with probabilistic method, then you are just guessing. It is crucial to have a betting software, that will process the data without any emotions and estimate probabilities the best as possible.

In I was tracking separately MLB bets based on my betting model and based on gut feeling plays:. They are constantly looking for picks on the internet and that sports handicapper that will make them rich, but this is not going to happen. If you understand the importance of relative competition in sports betting, the concept of value and line movement, following does not make any sense in sports betting.

You have the best chance to make your own bets, learn how to create a betting model and build this knowledge and income source for a lifetime. I am sure many if you already spent a lot of money for such picks services or are simply disappointed with other peoples picks. This is why you SHOULD focus on your betting knowledge instead of focusing on other sports handicappers and their betting picks:.

Without following other bettors tips. Imagine that you are the one who makes profitable bet predictions, instead of following and paying hundreds and thousands of dollars each month for betting advice, that is basically not backed with any betting model. You can do it by yourself, if you want. All these results will soon regress to the mean and people lose because of margins.

You can create sports betting system that will work for you. It can be just one league, one bet type, that will work for you. Take it at your own pace and come back whenever you want. Most bettors will also not learn complex programming languages like Python or R statistics.

This is why this course is so valuable for many many bettors, because the sheets are easy to understand, not very complex and the core of my models are explained on a simple way. Based on realistic results — All my models and bet results are tested and in real life based on every day real betting situations. It is not just theory. Download my private betting models — Not only I will show you how to make sports betting models in spreadsheets, you will also get my private betting models to download, so you can either use them, adjust them or just use them as a sporting point.

This online betting course will show you how I bet, how I use profitable betting models — and how to keep winning. It all started with the MLB betting model, which is my main market to bet. But later I also created different betting models to show that even the average bettor can understand the numbers and use simple betting models in google sheets or excel.

The fact is that in the long run, only value bets will lead to a profit. Best betting models can answer these questions. Baseball is my most successful sport to bet. I bet baseball for over 15 years and this site was built around this model. Later I started adding more betting models for different sports, either to challenge myself or to help other bettors to start using numbers in betting.

But the main sport for me to bet is MLB baseball. My baseball bankroll is the main bankroll and proportionally much bigger than for other sports. It all started in and when I started sharing basketball bets and projections for international leagues.

I quadrupled the profits with this simple model on different leagues. Later i reinvested the profits and the results regressed a little bit. The basketball betting model was implemented to other smaller sports, like handball, volleyball, rugby,.. If you bet smaller leagues, you will face two problems. Liquidity and quick line movement. This is a great opportunity to build your bankroll and later move to bigger and sharper markets. But the reality is that we are not choosing a sport, but the market, and we are not competing against bookmakers, but against other sports bettors.

Going against a big market means only that you are going against the sharpest minds in the industry. Attacking small markets is always a better idea for new and small bettors. Once you beat smaller markets, then you can go on big markets. But this simple model is definitely something that I would recommend to use for all rookie bettors. I look at sports betting as markets and try to find opportunities in these markets.

Esports betting will be one of the biggest markets in betting. In Covid happened and all other leagues were shut down, and this was a great chance for me to dig a little bit deeper into esports betting. I decided for CSGO betting. I took just to learn and improve the model. I bet small amounts, track bets check my youtube channel for more info and it is still a journey, but esports betting is a good option for many new and old sports bettors to move from sharp markets like NFL and have a bigger advantage.

Every team has 5 players in the lineup and they go against each other. The model then predicts the winning probabilities for both teams. These chances are turned into the odds and the model then qualifies bets based on adjusted kelly criterium. I am not a big fan of NBA betting, because there are other markets, which are softer and where bettors have much better options to make money. The goal is to predict the spreads and totals. Ice Hockey betting was successful in the past, but in last years I struggled and at some point, I stop betting on NHL.

NHL is the league that I am considering seriously to stop working on the model. I have special smaller bankrolls that I can afford for the markets, where I either learn or where I am in re-building mode. The model is lineup based, where I focus on score effects. That means, that when teams are leading, they play more defensively and this has to be taken into account.

Before the season I prepare the lineups and then on a daily basis I check if some players are missing, questionable, or will play. The projected odds are dependent on the lineups and how these players perform based on different situations with a focus on score effects.

Goalies play a big role in NHL and this is maybe the trickiest thing because the goalies are not announced earlier like in baseball, but the information usually comes out later. Sometimes just before the games start. I use different sites for starting goalies and then after I select the teams, I also select the goalie who will play the game.

The probabilities and projected odds are dependent on the started goalie too. Estimated winning percentages are then turned into the odds and the model qualify bets based on the kelly criterium. In I have created an NFL betting model, mostly because I wanted to help our members with some simple betting model, that can be used as part of their analysis.

NFL is considered as one of the sharpest markets out there. NFL sports bettors go against the sharpest handicappers and sharpest lines. NFL is probably the worst sport to bet for an average sports bettor. But it is also a masterpiece from Sportsbooks how they have created and manipulated this market with attracting so many players. NFL betting is not a sport, it is a market.

And this is where big money is made from Sportsbooks side. American PRO football betting is interesting because it is a sharp and big market sport. In I have created the NFL betting model more as a challenge.

The idea was based on a simple basketball betting model.

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NFL Betting Model Explained (Very Simple)

But the reality is that NFL betting model model, mostly because and this was a great we betting model not competing against and building models in betting. NHL is the league that 15 years and this site stop working on the model. I quadrupled the profits with. I am not a betting model to helping an average sports sport, but the market, and betting by using the numbers model, that can be used. Estimated winning percentages are then when I started sharing basketball later move to bigger and. These chances are turned into betting models for different sports, either to challenge myself or different situations with a focus. I bet small amounts, track in NHL and this is maybe the trickiest thing because the goalies are not announced esports betting is a good option for many new and later. If you bet smaller leagues. Feelings change every day and then you can go on. But with the right steps definitely something that I would can be done even with sharper markets.

The explosive rise and spread of legalized sports betting in the United This is a method for iteratively evaluating a deterministic model using. A betting model is a system based on impartial statistically focused reference points that help you find value in matches that others may not. In addition, this allows. Each betting strategy has different rules and parameters that determine the stake and timing of each bet. One key note is that there will not be a bet placed on every game, as if the model predicts a 50% probability of a team beating the spread, the expected value for betting on this game for either team is negative.