China's plan for a major program to invest in "new infrastructure" addresses both urgent and important problems. According to the government, the term "new infrastructure" encompasses 5G, ultra-high-voltage power facilities, inter-city transport, new energy vehicle charging stations, big data centers, artificial intelligence and industrial internet.
Investment in the area is expected to exceed 10 trillion yuan by , while total investment in related industries is estimated to exceed 17 trillion yuan by the same year. China's economy was the first to be struck by the COVID pandemic, and it was also the first to recover. Moreover, due to prompt, decisive and effective government responses the damage was not as deep as that suffered by other countries and it has surprised many with its resilience.
However, the pandemic is still raging in other parts of the world and the end is not yet in sight. As a result, exports, which are still crucial for both economic growth and employment in China, face an uncertain future. Investments in new infrastructure can not only stimulate economic demand but also immediately create jobs.
Because of the overall uncertainty, Premier Li Keqiang, in his work report, emphasized the importance of promoting employment and announced a target of 9 million new urban jobs in Policies like this are likely to have a real impact on employment because of China's ability to rapidly and faithfully translate major policy decisions into actual on-the-ground results.
As the COVID pandemic has shown, even countries that consider themselves global leaders have fumbled effective policy responses. New infrastructure investments can also help bolster consumer demand, which is another urgent problem. First, jobs that are created through this initiative, of course, will provide income to those employed and thus increase their purchasing power.
But there is also a signaling effect. A program like this provides confidence to China's citizens that the government is taking effective measures to ensure economic stability. With greater confidence, consumers are in turn more likely to spend, especially on big ticket items such as homes, cars and major appliances. While this program does indeed address the urgent problems described above, it also plays a vital strategic role in China's long-term growth.
For example, at the recent Huawei Global Analyst Summit, executives from Huawei underscored the importance of advances in networking infrastructure in the evolution of consumer devices. With the advent of 5G, the number of connected devices per square kilometer is expected to increase by up to times. But there is a further problem, too. With such eye-watering sums of money on the table, it looks likely that a lack of regional coordination and over-spending in areas where demand is lagging could create inefficiencies and overcapacities.
Hundreds of thousands of new 5G base stations or EV charging points will bring minimal returns if 5G phone and EV demand do not increase at the same rate. Second guessing future demand is always a high-risk venture, and nowhere more so than in the area of new technology.
Short analysis. Jun 04, China's digital future lies in the hands of private tech companies Unlike previous, more conventional, infrastructure investment programs, this new economic stimulus will rely on a more diverse set of players. Productive investments or digital bridges to nowhere? Author s. Caroline Meinhardt Analyst.
Industry , Innovation. Nov 03, Oct 27, Oct 22,
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